{"id":74004,"date":"2026-09-06T18:59:12","date_gmt":"2026-09-06T10:59:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/?page_id=74004"},"modified":"2026-09-06T19:01:47","modified_gmt":"2026-09-06T11:01:47","slug":"return-vs-risk","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/cs\/return-vs-risk\/","title":{"rendered":"Je ro\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdnos 20\u201335 % p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 n\u00edzk\u00fd? Nejd\u0159\u00edve pochopte maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed pokles"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t

Pro\u010d n\u011bkomu p\u0159ipad\u00e1 ro\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdnos 20\u201335 % n\u00edzk\u00fd?<\/h1>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\nKdy\u017e se v\u011bnujete kvantitativn\u00edmu obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed d\u00e9le, ob\u010das dostanete ot\u00e1zku:\n

\n\n\u201eKolik va\u0161e strategie vyd\u011bl\u00e1 za rok?\u201c<\/strong>\n

\n\nKde po odpov\u011bdi \u201edlouhodob\u011b ro\u010dn\u011b kolem 20\u201335 %\u201c ob\u010das n\u00e1sleduje reakce:\n

\n\n\u201eNen\u00ed to trochu m\u00e1lo?\u201c<\/strong>\n

\n\nProbl\u00e9m nen\u00ed v tom, zda je 20\u201335 % hodn\u011b nebo m\u00e1lo, ale v tom:\n

\n\nS \u010d\u00edm to srovn\u00e1v\u00e1te?<\/strong>\n

\n\nPokud srovn\u00e1v\u00e1te s c\u00edl jako \u201ezdvojn\u00e1soben\u00ed za rok\u201c, \u201e20 % m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b\u201c nebo \u201e100 % ro\u010dn\u011b\u201c, pak 20\u201335 % opravdu vypad\u00e1 nen\u00e1padn\u011b.\n

\n\nP\u0159i hodnocen\u00ed investi\u010dn\u00ed strategie byste se v\u0161ak nem\u011bli pt\u00e1t jen na to, \u201ekolik vyd\u011bl\u00e1\u201c, ale:\n

\n\n\u201eJak\u00e9 riziko podstupuji pro tento v\u00fdnos?\u201c<\/strong>\n


\n\n\n

Maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed drawdown (MDD): Up\u0159\u00edmn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ukazatel ne\u017e samotn\u00fd v\u00fdnos<\/strong><\/h2>\n\nJedna strategie m\u00e1 ro\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdnos 100 %, ale maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed drawdown 40 %;\n

\n\ndruh\u00e1 m\u00e1 ro\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdnos jen 25 %,\n

\n\nale maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed pokles dr\u017e\u00ed v rozmez\u00ed 12\u201315 %. Kter\u00e1 je lep\u0161\u00ed?\n

\n\nNeexistuje absolutn\u00ed odpov\u011b\u010f.<\/strong>\n

\n\nSkute\u010dn\u011b z\u00e1sadn\u00ed ot\u00e1zka zn\u00ed: Dok\u00e1\u017eete takov\u00e9 riziko un\u00e9st?<\/strong>\n

\n\nPokud investujete 100 000 USD a \u00fa\u010det v\u00e1m klesne na 60 000 USD, dok\u00e1\u017eete pozici d\u00e1le dr\u017eet?\n

\n\nPokud ne, pak se ani ten nejkr\u00e1sn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdnos na pap\u00ed\u0159e nestane v\u00fdsledkem, kter\u00fd si skute\u010dn\u011b odnesete.\n

\n\nProto je maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed drawdown (Maximum Drawdown, MDD)<\/strong> tak kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd.\n

\n\nMDD m\u011b\u0159\u00ed maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed pokles \u010dist\u00e9 hodnoty aktiv z vrcholu na n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed dno za ur\u010dit\u00e9 obdob\u00ed.\n

\n\nPokud nap\u0159\u00edklad \u00fa\u010det vzroste ze 100 tis\u00edc na 120 tis\u00edc a pot\u00e9 klesne na 90 tis\u00edc, maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed drawdown je:\n

\n\n(120 - 90) \u00f7 120 = 25 %<\/strong>\n

\n\nRo\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdnos v\u00e1m \u0159ekne jen to, \u201ekolik jste nakonec vyd\u011blali\u201c, ale ne\u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u201e\u010d\u00edm jste si pro\u0161li mezit\u00edm\u201c.\n

\n\nDv\u011b strategie mohou m\u00edt ob\u011b ro\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdnos 30 %: jedna jde stabiln\u011b nahoru, druh\u00e1 za\u017eila 40% propad, ne\u017e dos\u00e1hla nov\u00e9ho maxima\n

\n\n\u2013 pro investory je to zcela odli\u0161n\u00e1 zku\u0161enost.\n


\n\n\n

\u010c\u00edm hlub\u0161\u00ed pokles, t\u00edm t\u011b\u017e\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1vrat na nulu<\/strong><\/h2>\n\nMnoho lid\u00ed si intuitivn\u011b mysl\u00ed: \u201eKdy\u017e klesnu o 50 %, sta\u010d\u00ed vyd\u011blat 50 % a jsem zp\u011bt,\u201c ale matematika tak nefunguje.\n

\n\nP\u0159edpokl\u00e1dejme po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed kapit\u00e1l 100 000 USD:\n<\/span><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t
\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n
Ztr\u00e1ta v %<\/strong><\/th>\n Zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed \u010d\u00e1stka
<\/strong><\/th>\n 		R\u016fst pro n\u00e1vrat<\/strong><\/th>\n N\u00e1ro\u010dnost n\u00e1vratu<\/strong><\/th>\n <\/tr>\n <\/thead>\n
-10%<\/td>\n $90 000<\/td>\n +11%<\/td>\n Snadn\u00e1<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n
-20%<\/td>\n $80 000<\/td>\n +25%<\/td>\n P\u0159ijateln\u00e1<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n
-30%<\/td>\n $70 000<\/td>\n +43%<\/td>\n N\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00e1<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n
-50%<\/strong><\/td>\n $50 000<\/strong><\/td>\n +100%<\/strong><\/td>\n Velmi t\u011b\u017ek\u00e1<\/strong><\/td>\n <\/tr>\n
-70%<\/td>\n $30 000<\/td>\n +233%<\/td>\n T\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nemo\u017en\u00e1<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n
-90%<\/td>\n $10 000<\/td>\n +900%<\/td>\n Celkov\u00e1 ztr\u00e1ta<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <\/tbody>\n <\/table>\n<\/div>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\nDrawdown nen\u00ed jen \u201edo\u010dasn\u011b ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed zisk\u201c, ale p\u0159\u00edmo m\u011bn\u00ed matematick\u00fd pr\u00e1h pot\u0159ebn\u00fd k n\u00e1vratu na p\u016fvodn\u00ed hodnotu.<\/strong>\n

\n\nProto p\u0159i hodnocen\u00ed strategie nesta\u010d\u00ed sledovat jen kone\u010dn\u00fd zisk \u010di ztr\u00e1tu,\n

\n\nale mus\u00edte v\u011bd\u011bt, s jak\u00fdmi v\u00fdkyvy aktiv byly tyto v\u00fdnosy z\u00edsk\u00e1ny.\n


\n\n\n

Vysok\u00e9 v\u00fdnosy obvykle nejsou zadarmo<\/strong><\/h2>\n\nDosahov\u00e1n\u00ed vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch v\u00fdnos\u016f obvykle vy\u017eaduje akceptaci vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed volatility nebo rizika.\n

\n\nPokud u strategie s v\u00fdnosem 20\u201335 % ro\u010dn\u011b\n

\n\njednodu\u0161e zv\u00fd\u0161\u00edte p\u00e1ku nebo velikost pozic, m\u016f\u017eete v\u00fdnosy d\u00e1le zv\u00fd\u0161it,\n

\n\nale volatilita a maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed drawdown se zv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ve stejn\u00e9m pom\u011bru.\n

\nProto to, co m\u00e1 smysl srovn\u00e1vat, nen\u00ed:\n

\n\n\u201eKter\u00e1 strategie vyd\u011bl\u00e1 v\u00edce?\u201c<\/strong>\n

\n\nale sp\u00ed\u0161e:\n

\n\n\u201eS jakou \u00farovn\u00ed rizika dan\u00e1 strategie tohoto v\u00fdnosu dos\u00e1hla?\u201c<\/strong>\n

\n\nVy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdnos neznamen\u00e1 vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed efektivitu investice \u2013\n

\n\nn\u011bkdy prost\u011b jen podstupujete v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed riziko.\n


\n\n\n

Skute\u010dn\u00fdm varov\u00e1n\u00edm je nesoulad mezi v\u00fdnosem a rizikem<\/strong><\/h2>\n\nPokud v\u00e1m p\u0159ipad\u00e1 20\u201335 % n\u00edzk\u00e9,\n

\n\ndal\u0161\u00ed ot\u00e1zka se snadno zm\u011bn\u00ed na \u201eA co 50 %?\u201c a pak \u201eCo t\u0159eba 100 %?\u201c\n

\n\nTouha po vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdnosu nen\u00ed sama o sob\u011b \u0161patn\u00e1; probl\u00e9m nast\u00e1v\u00e1, kdy\u017e se s rostouc\u00edm o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edm\n

\n\nza\u010dnou akceptovat finan\u010dn\u00ed p\u00e1ka, produkty nebo obchodn\u00ed styly, kter\u00fdm nerozum\u00edte.\n

\n\nVysok\u00e9 v\u00fdnosy samy o sob\u011b neznamenaj\u00ed podvod. \u010cemu je t\u0159eba v\u011bnovat nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed pozornost, je:<\/strong>\n

\n\nVysok\u00fd v\u00fdnos \uff0b N\u00edzk\u00e9 riziko \uff0b Minim\u00e1ln\u00ed drawdown \uff0b Garantovan\u00fd zisk<\/strong>\n

\n\nPokud v\u00e1m n\u011bkdo slibuje toto v\u0161echno z\u00e1rove\u0148, nem\u011bli byste se pt\u00e1t \u201eD\u00e1 se opravdu tolik vyd\u011blat?\u201c, ale:\n

\n\n\u201eZa jak\u00e9 riziko je tento v\u00fdnos ve skute\u010dnosti sm\u011b\u0148ov\u00e1n?\u201c<\/strong>\n

\n\nRozumn\u00e1 strategie by m\u011bla jasn\u011b vysv\u011btlit zdroje v\u00fdnos\u016f, zdroje rizik i nejhor\u0161\u00ed mo\u017en\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159.\n


\n\n\n

Jak\u00e9 dal\u0161\u00ed ukazatele lze p\u0159i hodnocen\u00ed strategi\u00ed sledovat?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\nKrom\u011b ro\u010dn\u00edho v\u00fdnosu lze p\u0159i hodnocen\u00ed strategie vyu\u017e\u00edt i dal\u0161\u00ed dopl\u0148kov\u00e9 ukazatele,\n

\n\nnap\u0159\u00edklad Sharpeho pom\u011br (Sharpe Ratio) pro m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed v\u00fdnosu upraven\u00e9ho o riziko,\n

\n\nSortin\u016fv pom\u011br (Sortino Ratio) zam\u011b\u0159en\u00fd na riziko poklesu,\n

\n\nnebo Calmar\u016fv pom\u011br (Calmar Ratio), kter\u00fd kombinuje v\u00fdnos s maxim\u00e1ln\u00edm drawdownem.\n

\n\nTyto ukazatele v\u00e1m pomohou pochopit strategii z r\u016fzn\u00fdch \u00fahl\u016f,\n

\n\nale jejich podstata sm\u011b\u0159uje k jedin\u00e9 v\u011bci:\n

\n\nJak velk\u00e9 riziko bylo zapot\u0159eb\u00ed k dosa\u017een\u00ed v\u00fdnosu t\u00e9to strategie?<\/strong>\n

\n\nNap\u0159\u00edklad Calmar\u016fv pom\u011br se po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 jako ro\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdnos d\u011blen\u00fd maxim\u00e1ln\u00edm drawdownem;\n

\n\n\u010d\u00edm vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00edslo, t\u00edm vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdnos z\u00edsk\u00e1te za ka\u017edou jednotku podstoupen\u00e9ho rizika drawdownu.\n

\n\nPojmy jako volatilita, Sharpe \u010di Sortino vysv\u011btl\u00edme v n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch \u010dl\u00e1nc\u00edch.\n

\n\nPro tuto chv\u00edli:\n

\n\nPochopen\u00ed MDD v\u00e1s posune o velk\u00fd krok nap\u0159ed p\u0159ed investory, kte\u0159\u00ed sleduj\u00ed pouze v\u00fdnosy.<\/strong>\n


\n\n\n

Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka: Dok\u00e1\u017eete pozici udr\u017eet?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\nPo zhl\u00e9dnut\u00ed v\u00fdsledk\u016f strategie by dal\u0161\u00ed ot\u00e1zka nem\u011bla b\u00fdt jen \u201eM\u016f\u017ee vyd\u011blat je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edc?\u201c, ale:\n

\n\n\u201ePokud v budoucnu nastane podobn\u00fd pokles jako v minulosti, dok\u00e1\u017eu pozici d\u00e1le dr\u017eet?\u201c<\/strong>\n

\n\nJedna strategie m\u00e1 historick\u00fd MDD 15 %, druh\u00e1 40 %.\n

\n\nI kdy\u017e druh\u00e1 dosahuje dlouhodob\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00edho v\u00fdnosu, neznamen\u00e1 to, \u017ee je pro v\u00e1s vhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.\n

\n\nProto\u017ee strategie ne\u017eij\u00ed jen ve v\u00fdkazech \u2013\n

\n\nmus\u00edte je skute\u010dn\u011b dr\u017eet, abyste z\u00edskali jejich v\u00fdnosy.<\/strong>\n

\n\nPokud p\u0159i 20% poklesu za\u010dnete pochybovat, prod\u00e1vat se ztr\u00e1tou nebo vystupovat na dn\u011b,\n

\n\npak pro v\u00e1s historick\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky nemaj\u00ed velk\u00fd v\u00fdznam.\n

\n\nStrategie pokles p\u0159e\u017eije, ale investor nemus\u00ed.<\/strong>\n

\n\nJak velk\u00fd MDD dok\u00e1\u017eete un\u00e9st, nem\u00e1 univerz\u00e1ln\u00ed odpov\u011b\u010f;\n

\n\nz\u00e1vis\u00ed na \u00fa\u010delu kapit\u00e1lu, investi\u010dn\u00edm horizontu, toleranci k riziku a va\u0161\u00ed psychick\u00e9 odolnosti v\u016f\u010di volatilit\u011b.\n


\n\n\n

Skute\u010dn\u00e1 hodnota kvantitativn\u00edho obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/strong><\/h2>\n\nHodnota kvantitativn\u00edho obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed nespo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v maxim\u00e1ln\u00edm v\u00fdnosu za ka\u017edou cenu, ale v:\n

\n\nvytvo\u0159en\u00ed ov\u011b\u0159iteln\u00fdch pravidel mezi v\u00fdnosem a rizikem pomoc\u00ed systematick\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edstupu.<\/strong>\n

\n\nProst\u0159ednictv\u00edm automatick\u00e9ho prov\u00e1d\u011bn\u00ed, \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed pozic a kontroly rizik\n

\n\npom\u00e1haj\u00ed kvantitativn\u00ed strategie sni\u017eovat z\u00e1vislost rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed na lidsk\u00fdch emoc\u00edch.\n

\n\nTo v\u0161ak neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee kvantitativn\u00ed obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed je bez rizika \u2013\n

\n\ni ono \u010del\u00ed zm\u011bn\u00e1m tr\u017en\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed, selh\u00e1n\u00ed strategi\u00ed \u010di riziku likvidity.\n

\n\nQuant nen\u00ed synonymem pro n\u00edzk\u00e9 riziko ani z\u00e1rukou zisku.\n

\n\nJeho skute\u010dn\u00e1 hodnota spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v tom, \u017ee:\n

\n\nv\u00e1m umo\u017en\u00ed p\u0159esn\u011b pochopit, jak\u00e1 pravidla pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1te a jak\u00e9 riziko podstupujete pro potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fdnos.<\/strong>\n


\n\n\n

Je tedy 20\u201335 % opravdu m\u00e1lo?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\nNeexistuje odpov\u011b\u010f vytr\u017een\u00e1 z kontextu rizika.\n

\n\nStrategie s v\u00fdnosem 30 % ro\u010dn\u011b spojen\u00e1 s neakceptovateln\u00fdm poklesem\n

\n\npro v\u00e1s m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt hor\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e strategie s v\u00fdnosem 20 %, ale l\u00e9pe \u0159\u00edzen\u00fdm rizikem.\n

\n\nNaopak strategie s v\u00fdnosem 20 % ro\u010dn\u011b \u2013\n

\n\npokud m\u00e1 transparentn\u00ed riziko, p\u0159ijateln\u00fd drawdown a dok\u00e1\u017eete ji dlouhodob\u011b dodr\u017eovat \u2013\n

\n\nnemus\u00ed b\u00fdt v\u016fbec \u201en\u00edzkov\u00fdnosov\u00e1\u201c.\n

\n\nTo, co m\u00e1 smysl srovn\u00e1vat, nen\u00ed samotn\u00fd v\u00fdnos, ale kompletn\u00ed profil \u201eV\u00fdnos \u00d7 Riziko\u201c.<\/strong>\n

\n\nA\u017e budete p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u011b hodnotit strategii, zkusme si polo\u017eit tyto ot\u00e1zky:\n

\n\n
    \n
  1. Jak\u00fd je dlouhodob\u00fd ro\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdnos?<\/li>\n
  2. Jak\u00fd je maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed drawdown?<\/li>\n
  3. Jak dlouho poklesy obvykle trvaj\u00ed?<\/li>\n
  4. Odpov\u00edd\u00e1 v\u00fdnos p\u0159im\u011b\u0159en\u011b podstupovan\u00e9mu riziku?<\/li>\n
  5. Jsou historick\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky dostate\u010dn\u011b konzistentn\u00ed?<\/li>\n
  6. Pokud se historick\u00fd maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed pokles zopakuje, dok\u00e1\u017eu pozici d\u00e1le dr\u017eet?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
    \nSkute\u010dn\u00fd zisk nen\u00ed \u010d\u00edslo, kter\u00e9 se kdysi objevilo ve v\u00fdkazu,\n

    \n\nale to, co v\u00e1m z\u016fstane po p\u0159ekon\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdkyv\u016f bez panick\u00e9ho prodeje na dn\u011b.\n

    \n\nInvestov\u00e1n\u00ed nen\u00ed z\u00e1vod o to, kdo vyd\u011bl\u00e1 nejrychleji.<\/strong>\n

    \n\nSkute\u010dn\u00fdm c\u00edlem je dosahovat rozumn\u00e9ho dlouhodob\u00e9ho v\u00fdnosu v r\u00e1mci va\u0161\u00ed tolerance k riziku.\n<\/span><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
    \n\t\t\t\t
    \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
    \n\t\t\t\t\t
    \n\t\t\t\t
    \n\t\t\t\t
    \n\t\t\t\t\t

    Zvolte si vhodnou strategii<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
    \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t