{"id":74483,"date":"2026-10-26T16:39:14","date_gmt":"2026-10-26T08:39:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/?page_id=74483"},"modified":"2026-10-27T00:36:13","modified_gmt":"2026-10-26T16:36:13","slug":"annual-return-expectations","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/cs\/annual-return-expectations\/","title":{"rendered":"Jak\u00fd je rozumn\u00fd ro\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdnos? Slo\u017een\u00e9 \u00faro\u010den\u00ed a ETF"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Rychl\u00e9 zdvojn\u00e1soben\u00ed pen\u011bz nen\u00ed dlouhodob\u00fd v\u00fdnos: jak nastavit realistick\u00e1 o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed?<\/h1>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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\"\"<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

\n\nNa investi\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch se \u010dasto setk\u00e1v\u00e1me s p\u0159\u00edb\u011bhy o p\u016fsobiv\u00fdch v\u00fdnosech.\n

\n\nN\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed obchodn\u00edci vyd\u011blaj\u00ed zna\u010dn\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1stky b\u011bhem n\u011bkolika m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f, jin\u00ed zve\u0159ej\u0148uj\u00ed v\u00fdsledky \u00fa\u010dt\u016f, kter\u00e9 se za rok zdvojn\u00e1sobily.\n

\n\nTakov\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky mohou b\u00fdt skute\u010dn\u00e9. Zda jsou v\u0161ak rozumn\u00fdm o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edm pro dlouhodob\u00e9 investov\u00e1n\u00ed, je jin\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka.\n

\n\nKr\u00e1tkodob\u00fd zisk nezaru\u010d\u00ed stejn\u00e9 tempo r\u016fstu po deset let.<\/strong>\n

\n\nInvestora by nem\u011blo zaj\u00edmat jen to, kolik ur\u010dit\u00e1 strategie vyd\u011blala, ale tak\u00e9 jak dlouho jej\u00ed v\u00fdsledky vydr\u017eely a co znamenaj\u00ed ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s dal\u0161\u00edmi mo\u017enostmi.\n

\n\nD\u00edky slo\u017een\u00e9mu ro\u010dn\u00edmu tempu r\u016fstu, modelov\u00fdm v\u00fdpo\u010dt\u016fm za deset let a ve\u0159ejn\u00fdm tr\u017en\u00edm \u00fadaj\u016fm si m\u016f\u017eeme vytvo\u0159it konkr\u00e9tn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed p\u0159edstavu o dlouhodob\u00fdch v\u00fdnosech, m\u00edsto abychom vych\u00e1zeli z n\u011bkolika mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f.\n

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1. Pro\u010d kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 zisky nejsou dlouhodob\u00fdm m\u011b\u0159\u00edtkem<\/strong><\/h2>\n\nO\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed investor\u016f se \u010dasto li\u0161\u00ed podle jejich zku\u0161enost\u00ed s trhem.\n

\n\nDlouhodob\u00fd investor do ETF m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt zvykl\u00fd sledovat v\u00fdkonnost index\u016f za deset \u010di dvacet let.\n

\n\nKdo se v\u011bnuje forexu s p\u00e1kou, CFD nebo aktivn\u00edmu obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed, v\u00edd\u00e1 \u010dast\u011bji p\u0159\u00edklady vysok\u00fdch zisk\u016f z jedin\u00e9 transakce, t\u00fddne \u010di m\u011bs\u00edce.\n

\n\nP\u0159i rozd\u00edln\u00e9m \u010dasov\u00e9m horizontu m\u016f\u017ee v\u00fdraz \u201evysok\u00fd v\u00fdnos\u201c znamenat n\u011bco jin\u00e9ho.\n

\n\nTo neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed nem\u00e1 smysl ani \u017ee aktivn\u00ed obchodn\u00edci nutn\u011b podce\u0148uj\u00ed rizika.\n

\n\nPodstatn\u00e9 je rozli\u0161ovat: \u00dasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fd rok je\u0161t\u011b nen\u00ed dlouhodob\u00fd v\u00fdsledek.<\/strong>\n

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Finan\u010dn\u00ed p\u00e1ka n\u00e1sob\u00ed zisky i ztr\u00e1ty<\/strong><\/h3>\n\nP\u00e1kov\u00e9 obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u010detn\u011b forexu na mar\u017ei umo\u017e\u0148uje ovl\u00e1dat v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pozici s relativn\u011b malou z\u00e1lohou.\n

\n\nKdy\u017e se trh vyv\u00edj\u00ed p\u0159\u00edzniv\u011b, m\u016f\u017ee \u00fa\u010det za kr\u00e1tkou dobu v\u00fdrazn\u011b vyd\u011blat.\n

\n\nP\u00e1ka v\u0161ak sama o sob\u011b nezvy\u0161uje \u00fasp\u011b\u0161nost strategie ani nezaru\u010duje trval\u00fd zisk.\n

\n\nP\u0159i nep\u0159\u00edzniv\u00e9m pohybu trhu se mohou stejn\u011b rychle prohlubovat ztr\u00e1ty, co\u017e m\u016f\u017ee v\u00e9st k nedostatku mar\u017ee nebo nucen\u00e9mu uzav\u0159en\u00ed pozic.\n

\n\nAmerick\u00e1 Komise pro obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed s komoditn\u00edmi futures (CFTC) upozor\u0148uje, \u017ee p\u00e1ka p\u0159i mimoburzovn\u00edm obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed s m\u011bnami m\u016f\u017ee zn\u00e1sobit zisky i ztr\u00e1ty. Obchodn\u00edk m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159ij\u00edt o celou mar\u017ei a za ur\u010dit\u00fdch podm\u00ednek mu mohou vzniknout i dal\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1vazky.\n

\n\nZdroj: CFTC | Upozorn\u011bn\u00ed na rizika mimoburzovn\u00edho forexov\u00e9ho obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/a>.\n

\n\nJeden mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b ziskov\u00fd obchod proto neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee se v\u00fdsledek bude opakovat.\n

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P\u0159\u00edb\u011bhy \u00fasp\u011bchu nemus\u00ed ukazovat \u00faplnou historii<\/strong><\/h3>\n\nV\u00fdsledky sd\u00edlen\u00e9 na internetu mohou zachycovat nejlep\u0161\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edc, obchodn\u00ed sout\u011b\u017e nebo sn\u00edmky n\u011bkolika \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fdch transakc\u00ed.\n

\n\nNemus\u00ed b\u00fdt nepravdiv\u00e9, ale obvykle nesta\u010d\u00ed k posouzen\u00ed cel\u00e9 strategie v r\u016fzn\u00fdch tr\u017en\u00edch podm\u00ednk\u00e1ch.\n

\n\nPokud vid\u00edme jen \u00fasp\u011bchy a nikoli v\u00fdsledky ostatn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f, snadno p\u0159ecen\u00edme \u0161anci na opakov\u00e1n\u00ed stejn\u00fdch v\u00fdnos\u016f v dlouh\u00e9m obdob\u00ed.\n

\n\nKr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 zisky zkoumejte, ale nep\u0159edpokl\u00e1dejte je ka\u017ed\u00fd rok.<\/strong>\n

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2. CAGR a deset let slo\u017een\u00e9ho r\u016fstu<\/strong><\/h2>\n\nNejsnaz\u0161\u00ed cestou k pochopen\u00ed dlouhodob\u00e9ho ro\u010dn\u00edho v\u00fdnosu je pod\u00edvat se na slo\u017een\u00e9 zhodnocov\u00e1n\u00ed.\n

\n\nP\u0159i porovn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdkonnosti investic se \u010dasto pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 slo\u017een\u00e1 ro\u010dn\u00ed m\u00edra r\u016fstu (Compound Annual Growth Rate, CAGR)<\/strong>.\n

\n\nCAGR p\u0159epo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1v\u00e1 kumulativn\u00ed r\u016fst za ur\u010dit\u00e9 obdob\u00ed na ekvivalentn\u00ed ro\u010dn\u00ed m\u00edru slo\u017een\u00e9ho r\u016fstu.\n

\n\nPokud investice za deset let vzroste na n\u011bkolikan\u00e1sobek p\u016fvodn\u00ed hodnoty, CAGR uk\u00e1\u017ee, jak\u00e9mu st\u00e1l\u00e9mu ro\u010dn\u00edmu tempu odpov\u00edd\u00e1 rozd\u00edl mezi po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed a kone\u010dnou hodnotou.\n

\n\nNeznamen\u00e1 to v\u0161ak, \u017ee hodnota investice rostla ka\u017ed\u00fd rok stejn\u00fdm procentem.\n

\n\nV n\u011bkter\u00fdch letech mohla investice vyd\u011blat a v jin\u00fdch prod\u011blat; CAGR vyjad\u0159uje ekvivalentn\u00ed ro\u010dn\u00ed tempo za cel\u00e9 obdob\u00ed.\n

\n\nCAGR porovn\u00e1v\u00e1 dlouhodob\u00fd r\u016fst, nikoli v\u00fdkyvy a rizika.<\/strong>\n

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Kolik bude m\u00edt investice US$100,000 za deset let?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\nP\u0159edpokl\u00e1dejme, \u017ee \u010dty\u0159i investo\u0159i vlo\u017e\u00ed ka\u017ed\u00fd US$100,000, deset let nic nep\u0159id\u00e1vaj\u00ed ani nevyb\u00edraj\u00ed a nezapo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1vaj\u00ed dan\u011b ani poplatky za obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed.\n

\n\nP\u0159i \u010dty\u0159ech hypotetick\u00fdch slo\u017een\u00fdch ro\u010dn\u00edch m\u00edr\u00e1ch r\u016fstu vych\u00e1zej\u00ed n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00fdsledky:\n

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P\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00fd ro\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdnos<\/strong><\/th>\nPo\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed kapit\u00e1l<\/strong><\/th>\nHodnota za 10 let<\/strong><\/th>\nN\u00e1sobek vkladu<\/strong><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
5%<\/td>\nUS$100,000<\/td>\nUS$162,889<\/td>\n1.63n\u00e1sobek<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10%<\/td>\nUS$100,000<\/td>\nUS$259,374<\/td>\n2.59n\u00e1sobek<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15%<\/td>\nUS$100,000<\/td>\nUS$404,556<\/td>\n4.05n\u00e1sobek<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
20%<\/td>\nUS$100,000<\/td>\nUS$619,174<\/td>\n6.19n\u00e1sobek<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n
\n\nPozn\u00e1mka k v\u00fdpo\u010dtu:<\/strong> V\u00fdsledky vych\u00e1zej\u00ed ze vzorce \u201epo\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed kapit\u00e1l \u00d7 (1 + p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00fd ro\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdnos)^10\u201c a \u010d\u00e1stky jsou zaokrouhleny na cel\u00e9 americk\u00e9 dolary. Tabulka ukazuje pouze matematick\u00fd \u00fa\u010dinek slo\u017een\u00e9ho r\u016fstu; nejde o skute\u010dnou v\u00fdkonnost, o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9 v\u00fdnosy ani p\u0159\u00edslib zisku \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9ho ETF, fondu, kvantitativn\u00ed strategie \u010di produktu Mr.Forex.\n

\n\nTabulka ukazuje, \u017ee p\u0159i del\u0161\u00edm horizontu mohou i jednotky procentn\u00edch bod\u016f rozd\u00edlu v ro\u010dn\u00edm r\u016fstu v\u00fdrazn\u011b zm\u011bnit kone\u010dnou hodnotu investice.\n

\n\nJde v\u0161ak o matematickou vlastnost slo\u017een\u00e9ho r\u016fstu, nikoli o d\u016fkaz, \u017ee n\u011bkter\u00fd investi\u010dn\u00ed produkt uveden\u00fdch v\u00fdnos\u016f dos\u00e1hne.\n

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Pro\u010d jednor\u00e1zov\u00fdch 100 % neznamen\u00e1 100 % ro\u010dn\u011b?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\nP\u0159edstavme si investici, kter\u00e1 b\u011bhem prvn\u00edho cel\u00e9ho roku bez dal\u0161\u00edch vklad\u016f vzroste z US$100,000 na US$200,000.\n

\n\nV\u00fdnos za tento rok skute\u010dn\u011b \u010din\u00ed +100%.\n

\n\nJestli\u017ee ale v druh\u00e9m roce klesne z US$200,000 zp\u011bt na US$100,000, po dvou letech se investor vr\u00e1t\u00ed na p\u016fvodn\u00ed kapit\u00e1l.\n

\n\nV takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b:\n

\n\nPrvn\u00ed rok p\u0159inese +100%, druh\u00fd rok \u221250%.\n

\n\nP\u0159esto\u017ee jednoduch\u00fd aritmetick\u00fd pr\u016fm\u011br t\u011bchto dvou v\u00fdnos\u016f \u010din\u00ed +25%, kumulativn\u00ed v\u00fdnos za cel\u00e9 dva roky je 0% a CAGR je rovn\u011b\u017e 0%.\n

\n\nJednor\u00e1zov\u00e9 zdvojn\u00e1soben\u00ed nen\u00ed trval\u00fd r\u016fst.<\/strong>\n

\n\nU kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fdch \u00fasp\u011bch\u016f je proto d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed nejprve zjistit, za jak dlouh\u00e9 obdob\u00ed vznikly, ne\u017e je prom\u00edtat do o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed pro dal\u0161\u00ed roky.\n

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3. Jak\u00e9 vod\u00edtko nab\u00edzej\u00ed skute\u010dn\u00e9 dlouhodob\u00e9 v\u00fdnosy trh\u016f?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\nSlo\u017een\u00fd r\u016fst vysv\u011btluje dlouhodob\u00fd v\u00fdvoj investice, ale investor pot\u0159ebuje zn\u00e1t tak\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky, kter\u00fdch finan\u010dn\u00ed trhy skute\u010dn\u011b dos\u00e1hly.\n

\n\nDobr\u00fdm v\u00fdchoz\u00edm bodem jsou ve\u0159ejn\u011b dostupn\u00e9 tr\u017en\u00ed indexy.\n

\n\nGlob\u00e1ln\u00ed akcie, americk\u00e9 akcie a americk\u00fd technologick\u00fd sektor pat\u0159\u00ed do akciov\u00e9ho trhu, ale maj\u00ed jin\u00e9 slo\u017een\u00ed i zdroje rizika, tak\u017ee se jejich historick\u00e9 ro\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdnosy mohou v\u00fdrazn\u011b li\u0161it.\n

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Historick\u00e1 desetilet\u00e1 v\u00fdkonnost t\u0159\u00ed akciov\u00fdch trh\u016f<\/strong><\/h3>\n\nPou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1me ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00fadaje MSCI o ro\u010dn\u00edm \u010dist\u00e9m celkov\u00e9m v\u00fdnosu index\u016f za deset let do 30. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2026.\n

\n\nV\u0161echny t\u0159i indexy maj\u00ed stejn\u00e9 koncov\u00e9 datum, m\u011bnu USD i desetilet\u00e9 sledovan\u00e9 obdob\u00ed.\n

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Tr\u017en\u00ed index<\/strong><\/th>\nHlavn\u00ed tr\u017en\u00ed zam\u011b\u0159en\u00ed<\/strong><\/th>\nRo\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdnos (10 let)<\/strong><\/th>\nObdob\u00ed<\/strong><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
MSCI ACWI<\/strong><\/td>\nAkcie rozvinut\u00fdch a rozv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00edch se trh\u016f sv\u011bta<\/td>\n+12.38%<\/td>\nDeset let do 2026\/09\/30<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MSCI USA<\/strong><\/td>\nVelk\u00e9 a st\u0159edn\u00ed americk\u00e9 akcie<\/td>\n+14.75%<\/td>\nDeset let do 2026\/09\/30<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MSCI USA Information Technology<\/strong><\/td>\nAkcie americk\u00e9ho sektoru informa\u010dn\u00edch technologi\u00ed<\/td>\n+24.93%<\/td>\nDeset let do 2026\/09\/30<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n
\n\nZdroj:<\/strong> MSCI | Ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed p\u0159ehled indexu MSCI USA Information Technology Index (USD)<\/a>, \u00fadaje k 30. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2026.\n

\n\nVysv\u011btlen\u00ed \u00fadaj\u016f:<\/strong> Uv\u00e1d\u011bn\u00e9 hodnoty p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed desetilet\u00fd anualizovan\u00fd \u010dist\u00fd celkov\u00fd v\u00fdnos index\u016f v USD (Net Returns, USD). Nejde o skute\u010dn\u00e9 v\u00fdnosy investor\u016f do ETF po ode\u010dten\u00ed v\u0161ech p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00fdch poplatk\u016f a individu\u00e1ln\u00edch dan\u00ed. MSCI m\u016f\u017ee v aktualizovan\u00fdch p\u0159ehledech zobrazovat nov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edce; zde z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed \u010d\u00edsla pevn\u011b sv\u00e1z\u00e1na s uveden\u00fdm datem.\n

\n\nJe vid\u011bt, \u017ee i za toto\u017en\u00e9 desetilet\u00e9 obdob\u00ed se mohou ro\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdnosy r\u016fzn\u00fdch akciov\u00fdch trh\u016f a sektor\u016f zna\u010dn\u011b li\u0161it.\n

\n\nNesna\u017e\u00edme se t\u00edm stanovit univerz\u00e1ln\u00ed c\u00edlov\u00fd v\u00fdnos pro v\u0161echny produkty, n\u00fdbr\u017e p\u0159ipomenout:\n

\n\nO\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed op\u00edrejte o tr\u017en\u00ed data, ne o v\u00fdjime\u010dn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edb\u011bhy.<\/strong>\n

\n\nIndexy poskytuj\u00ed srovn\u00e1vac\u00ed m\u011b\u0159\u00edtko, ale nep\u0159edstavuj\u00ed horn\u00ed hranici v\u00fdnosu jin\u00fdch obchodn\u00edch strategi\u00ed ani z\u00e1ruku, \u017ee se historie zopakuje.\n

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Historick\u00e9 v\u00fdnosy nejsou p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed budoucnosti<\/strong><\/h3>\n\nKrom\u011b historick\u00fdch dat zve\u0159ej\u0148uj\u00ed odborn\u00e9 instituce tak\u00e9 modelov\u00e9 odhady budouc\u00edch tr\u017en\u00edch v\u00fdnos\u016f.\n

\n\nNap\u0159\u00edklad model kapit\u00e1lov\u00fdch trh\u016f spole\u010dnosti Vanguard zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00fd 21. \u0159\u00edjna 2026 odhadoval o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fd ro\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdnos americk\u00fdch akci\u00ed pro n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch deset let na 4.8% a\u017e 6.8%.\n

\n\nZdroj: Vanguard | Capital Markets Model Forecasts<\/a>.\n

\n\nJde o modelov\u00fd odhad zalo\u017een\u00fd na tehdej\u0161\u00edch podm\u00ednk\u00e1ch trhu, nikoli o ji\u017e realizovan\u00e9 investi\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdsledky nebo z\u00e1ruku budouc\u00edch v\u00fdnos\u016f.\n

\n\nInvestor by proto m\u011bl rozli\u0161ovat mezi historick\u00fdmi v\u00fdnosy, modelov\u00fdmi progn\u00f3zami a dosud nenapln\u011bn\u00fdmi investi\u010dn\u00edmi c\u00edli<\/strong>, aby nepova\u017eoval r\u016fzn\u00e9 typy \u010d\u00edsel za rovnocenn\u00fd d\u016fkaz v\u00fdkonnosti.\n

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4. Jak porovn\u00e1vat investi\u010dn\u00ed mo\u017enosti?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\nKdy\u017e rozum\u00edme slo\u017een\u00e9mu r\u016fstu a historick\u00fdm tr\u017en\u00edm dat\u016fm, m\u016f\u017eeme tyto poznatky uplatnit p\u0159i vlastn\u00edm rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed.\n

\n\nInvestor m\u016f\u017ee nap\u0159\u00edklad zva\u017eovat akciov\u00e9 ETF nebo kvantitativn\u00ed strategii pro forex \u010di v\u00edce trh\u016f.\n

\n\nTyto n\u00e1stroje funguj\u00ed r\u016fzn\u011b, ale v\u0161echny p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 zp\u016fsoby pou\u017eit\u00ed kapit\u00e1lu, a lze je tedy porovn\u00e1vat.\n

\n\nPozor v\u0161ak: Nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdnos nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt nejlep\u0161\u00ed volba.<\/strong>\n

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Krok 1: Nep\u0159en\u00e1\u0161ejte kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 zisky do budoucna<\/strong><\/h3>\n\nKdy\u017e n\u011bkdo ukazuje vysok\u00e9 zisky za t\u0159i m\u011bs\u00edce, nesta\u010d\u00ed je vyn\u00e1sobit \u010dty\u0159mi a pova\u017eovat v\u00fdsledek za realistick\u00fd ro\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdnos.\n

\n\nTr\u017en\u00ed podm\u00ednky, obchodn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti a v\u00fdvoj zisk\u016f a ztr\u00e1t se neopakuj\u00ed pravideln\u00fdm tempem.\n

\n\nNejprve si ujasn\u011bte: T\u00fdk\u00e1 se uveden\u00e9 procento t\u0159\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f, jednoho roku, nebo n\u011bkolika let?<\/strong>\n

\n\nU\u017e samotn\u00e9 rozli\u0161en\u00ed \u010dasov\u00e9ho horizontu zabr\u00e1n\u00ed \u0159ad\u011b nedorozum\u011bn\u00ed ohledn\u011b v\u00fdnosnosti.\n

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Krok 2: Srovnejte v\u00fdsledek se zn\u00e1m\u00fdm ETF<\/strong><\/h3>\n\nB\u011b\u017en\u00fd investor nemus\u00ed um\u011bt analyzovat kvantitativn\u00ed modely ani do detailu rozum\u011bt ka\u017ed\u00e9mu riziku slo\u017eit\u00fdch obchodn\u00edch strategi\u00ed.\n

\n\nM\u016f\u017ee ale za\u010d\u00edt n\u00e1strojem, kter\u00fd zn\u00e1, nap\u0159\u00edklad b\u011b\u017en\u00fdm akciov\u00fdm ETF, a sledovat jeho historick\u00fd v\u00fdkon ve stejn\u00e9m obdob\u00ed.\n

\n\nPokud strategie p\u0159edkl\u00e1d\u00e1 v\u00fdsledky za posledn\u00edch p\u011bt let, lze je porovnat s celkov\u00fdm v\u00fdnosem ETF za toto\u017en\u00fdch p\u011bt let a co nejv\u00edce sjednotit m\u011bnu i metodiku v\u00fdpo\u010dtu v\u00fdnosu.\n

\n\nTakov\u00e9 srovn\u00e1n\u00ed pom\u016f\u017ee odpov\u011bd\u011bt alespo\u0148 na z\u00e1kladn\u00ed ot\u00e1zku:\n

\n\nJak by ve stejn\u00e9m obdob\u00ed dopadla b\u011b\u017en\u00e1 alternativa?<\/strong>\n

\n\nSrovn\u00e1n\u00ed nenahrazuje d\u016fkladn\u00e9 posouzen\u00ed rizik a neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee ETF mus\u00ed b\u00fdt v\u017edy lep\u0161\u00ed.\n

\n\nJeho p\u0159\u00ednosem je konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed alternativn\u00ed m\u011b\u0159\u00edtko m\u00edsto izolovan\u00e9ho pohledu na jedno procento v\u00fdnosu.\n

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Krok 3: Nestavte pl\u00e1n na trvale vysok\u00fdch v\u00fdnosech<\/strong><\/h3>\n\nKdy\u017e chce investor dos\u00e1hnout velk\u00e9ho finan\u010dn\u00edho c\u00edle v kr\u00e1tk\u00e9 dob\u011b, snadno nastav\u00ed p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 optimistick\u00e1 o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed budouc\u00edch p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f.\n

\n\nInvesti\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdsledky jsou v\u0161ak nejist\u00e9 a ani dobr\u00e1 historie nezaru\u010duje stejn\u011b siln\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky ka\u017ed\u00fd dal\u0161\u00ed rok.\n

\n\nP\u0159i pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fddaj\u016f proto nep\u0159edpokl\u00e1dejte trvale vysok\u00e9 investi\u010dn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edjmy a nespol\u00e9hejte p\u0159i \u00fahrad\u011b bl\u00edzk\u00fdch nezbytn\u00fdch \u017eivotn\u00edch n\u00e1klad\u016f na zisky, kter\u00fdch jste je\u0161t\u011b nedos\u00e1hli.\n

\n\nPokud v\u00e1\u0161 pl\u00e1n vy\u017eaduje roky mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00fdch v\u00fdnos\u016f, p\u0159ehodno\u0165te investici i o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/strong>\n

\n\nTo neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee investor nesm\u00ed usilovat o vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdnos, n\u00fdbr\u017e \u017ee m\u00e1 rozli\u0161ovat vytou\u017een\u00fd v\u00fdsledek od v\u00fdsledku, na kter\u00fd se lze rozumn\u011b spol\u00e9hat.\n

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5. Z\u00e1v\u011br: Realistick\u00e1 o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed m\u00edsto pevn\u00e9ho procenta<\/strong><\/h2>\n\nKr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 zisky mohou b\u00fdt oslniv\u00e9, ale dlouhodob\u00e1 v\u00fdkonnost se mus\u00ed prok\u00e1zat \u010dasem.\n

\n\nU vysok\u00e9ho \u010d\u00edsla v\u00fdnosu n\u00e1s m\u00e1 zaj\u00edmat hlavn\u011b obdob\u00ed, kter\u00e9 popisuje, nikoli nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed jednor\u00e1zov\u00fd zisk.\n

\n\nV\u00fdpo\u010dty slo\u017een\u00e9ho r\u016fstu pom\u00e1haj\u00ed pochopit dlouhodob\u00fd v\u00fdvoj majetku; tr\u017en\u00ed indexy poskytuj\u00ed skute\u010dn\u00e1 historick\u00e1 srovn\u00e1n\u00ed.\n

\n\n\u017d\u00e1dn\u00e9 jedin\u00e9 procento v\u0161ak neur\u010duje rozumn\u00fd dlouhodob\u00fd v\u00fdnos pro v\u0161echny typy investic.\n

\n\nB\u011b\u017en\u00fd investor nemus\u00ed nejprve dokonale ovl\u00e1dnout kvantitativn\u00ed modely, aby za\u010dal l\u00e9pe rozhodovat.\n

\n\nPokud nebude pova\u017eovat kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 zisky za normu budoucnosti, pou\u017eije zn\u00e1m\u00e9 investi\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1stroje ke srovn\u00e1n\u00ed a nebude pl\u00e1novat finance podle nepotvrzen\u00fdch p\u0159edpoklad\u016f vysok\u00fdch v\u00fdnos\u016f, vyhne se mnoha zbyte\u010dn\u00fdm rozpor\u016fm mezi o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edm a realitou.\n

\n\nRealistick\u00e1 o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed neznamenaj\u00ed men\u0161\u00ed ambice. Kr\u00e1tk\u00fd \u00fasp\u011bch nen\u00ed z\u00e1ruka.<\/strong>\n

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Prozkoumejte v\u00fdsledky kvantitativn\u00edch strategi\u00ed<\/strong><\/h3>\n\nZkoum\u00e1te-li investice mimo ETF, m\u016f\u017eete si porovnat \u00fadaje o v\u00fdsledc\u00edch r\u016fzn\u00fdch kvantitativn\u00edch strategi\u00ed, jejich historick\u00fdch obdob\u00edch a pravidlech \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed rizik.\n

\n\nMr.Forex zve\u0159ej\u0148uje souvisej\u00edc\u00ed v\u00fdzkumn\u00e9 informace, kter\u00e9 \u010dten\u00e1\u0159\u016fm umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00ed samostatn\u011b posoudit charakteristiky a rizika r\u016fzn\u00fdch investi\u010dn\u00edch p\u0159\u00edstup\u016f.\n

\n\nNejprve nastavte re\u00e1ln\u00e1 o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, pak zvolte vhodnou investici.<\/strong>\n

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\n\nUpozorn\u011bn\u00ed na rizika:<\/strong> Pouze pro finan\u010dn\u00ed vzd\u011bl\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed a obecn\u00e9 informace; nejde o osobn\u00ed investi\u010dn\u00ed radu ani z\u00e1ruku zisku. V\u00fdpo\u010dty slo\u017een\u00e9ho r\u016fstu jsou hypotetick\u00e9, nikoli skute\u010dn\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky, rozumn\u011b o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9 \u010di budouc\u00ed v\u00fdnosy konkr\u00e9tn\u00edho ETF, fondu, kvantitativn\u00ed strategie nebo produktu Mr.Forex. Data MSCI zachycuj\u00ed historick\u00e9 obdob\u00ed, ne skute\u010dn\u00e9 v\u00fdnosy investor\u016f do ETF. Model Vanguard je progn\u00f3za, nikoli z\u00e1ruka. P\u00e1ka zvy\u0161uje zisky i ztr\u00e1ty; m\u016f\u017eete p\u0159ij\u00edt o \u010d\u00e1st \u010di cel\u00fd kapit\u00e1l a n\u011bkdy se zadlu\u017eit. Minul\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky, simulovan\u00e9 backtesty ani tr\u017en\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdi nezaru\u010duj\u00ed budouc\u00ed v\u00fdnosy.<\/span><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Znamen\u00e1 rychl\u00e9 zdvojn\u00e1soben\u00ed investice dlouhodob\u00fd \u00fasp\u011bch? Vysv\u011btlujeme CAGR, slo\u017een\u00e9 zhodnocen\u00ed za 10 let a historick\u00e9 v\u00fdnosy sv\u011btov\u00fdch akci\u00ed. Porovn\u00e1v\u00e1me ETF a kvantitativn\u00ed strategie.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":74488,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"tags":[128],"class_list":["post-74483","page","type-page","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-no-google"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/74483","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=74483"}],"version-history":[{"count":34,"href":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/74483\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":74593,"href":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/74483\/revisions\/74593"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/74488"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=74483"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=74483"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}