{"id":47630,"date":"2025-01-31T22:24:16","date_gmt":"2025-01-31T14:24:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/test.swqi.tw\/?p=47630"},"modified":"2025-12-03T03:44:00","modified_gmt":"2025-12-02T19:44:00","slug":"yield-spread-impact","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/cs\/yield-spread-impact\/","title":{"rendered":"Jak vyu\u017e\u00edt zm\u011bny v rozd\u00edlu v\u00fdnos\u016f z dluhopis\u016f k obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed na forexu?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n

Jak rozd\u00edl v\u00fdnos\u016f dluhopis\u016f mezi dv\u011bma zem\u011bmi ovliv\u0148uje sm\u011bnn\u00fd kurz<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\nNa devizov\u00e9m trhu je rozd\u00edl v\u00fdnos\u016f dluhopis\u016f mezi dv\u011bma zem\u011bmi (Bond Yield Spread) d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdm faktorem ovliv\u0148uj\u00edc\u00edm kol\u00eds\u00e1n\u00ed sm\u011bnn\u00fdch kurz\u016f. Tento rozd\u00edl ve v\u00fdnosech m\u016f\u017ee odr\u00e1\u017eet o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed trhu ohledn\u011b ekonomick\u00fdch vyhl\u00eddek a m\u011bnov\u00e9 politiky obou zem\u00ed, a proto m\u00e1 v\u00fdznamn\u00fd vliv na v\u00fdvoj sm\u011bnn\u00fdch kurz\u016f. Tento \u010dl\u00e1nek se podrobn\u011b zab\u00fdv\u00e1 t\u00edm, jak rozd\u00edl v\u00fdnos\u016f dluhopis\u016f ovliv\u0148uje sm\u011bnn\u00fd kurz a jak\u00e9 jsou jeho z\u00e1kladn\u00ed principy.

\n\n

Co je rozd\u00edl v\u00fdnos\u016f dluhopis\u016f?<\/strong> <\/h3>\n\nRozd\u00edl v\u00fdnos\u016f dluhopis\u016f se vztahuje na rozd\u00edl v v\u00fdnosech obdobn\u00fdch dluhopis\u016f (obvykle 10let\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f) mezi dv\u011bma zem\u011bmi. Tento rozd\u00edl m\u016f\u017ee odr\u00e1\u017eet r\u016fzn\u00e9 n\u00e1zory trhu na ekonomiku a m\u011bnovou politiku t\u011bchto dvou zem\u00ed. Kdy\u017e je v\u00fdnos jedn\u00e9 zem\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v\u00fdnos druh\u00e9, obvykle to nazna\u010duje, \u017ee trh m\u00e1 optimisti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed ohledn\u011b ekonomiky t\u00e9to zem\u011b nebo o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby v t\u00e9to zemi budou vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed.
\n\n
Nap\u0159\u00edklad, pokud je v\u00fdnos 10let\u00e9ho st\u00e1tn\u00edho dluhopisu v USA 3% a v\u00fdnos 10let\u00e9ho st\u00e1tn\u00edho dluhopisu v N\u011bmecku 1%, pak je rozd\u00edl ve v\u00fdnosech mezi USA a N\u011bmeckem 2%. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee n\u00e1vratnost investic do dluhopis\u016f v USA bude vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v N\u011bmecku.
\n\n\"\"
\n\n

Mechanismus vlivu rozd\u00edlu v\u00fdnos\u016f dluhopis\u016f na sm\u011bnn\u00fd kurz<\/strong> <\/h3>\n\nRozd\u00edl v\u00fdnos\u016f dluhopis\u016f ovliv\u0148uje sm\u011bnn\u00fd kurz prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm kapit\u00e1lov\u00fdch tok\u016f a o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed investor\u016f. Konkr\u00e9tn\u011b: 

\n\n
    \n
  1. Kapit\u00e1lov\u00e9 toky:<\/strong> Pokud je v\u00fdnos dluhopis\u016f jedn\u00e9 zem\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v\u00fdnos druh\u00e9 zem\u011b, investo\u0159i maj\u00ed tendenci p\u0159esouvat kapit\u00e1l z n\u00edzko\u00faro\u010den\u00fdch zem\u00ed do vysoce\u00faro\u010den\u00fdch zem\u00ed, aby dos\u00e1hli vy\u0161\u0161\u00edho v\u00fdnosu. To zvy\u0161uje popt\u00e1vku po m\u011bn\u011b zem\u011b s vysok\u00fdm v\u00fdnosem, co\u017e vede k jej\u00edmu pos\u00edlen\u00ed.
    \n P\u0159\u00edklad:<\/strong> pokud je v\u00fdnos v USA vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v euroz\u00f3n\u011b, investo\u0159i mohou p\u0159ej\u00edt z eura na dolar, co\u017e zp\u016fsob\u00ed, \u017ee sm\u011bnn\u00fd kurz dolaru v\u016f\u010di euru (EUR \/ USD) vzroste, tedy dolar pos\u00edl\u00ed, euro oslab\u00ed.
    \n <\/li>\n
  2. O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb:<\/strong> Rozd\u00edl ve v\u00fdnosech tak\u00e9 odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed trhu ohledn\u011b budouc\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00e9 politiky obou zem\u00ed. Pokud trh o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee n\u011bjak\u00e1 zem\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby, jej\u00ed v\u00fdnosy dluhopis\u016f mohou vzr\u016fst, co\u017e p\u0159it\u00e1hne kapit\u00e1l a pos\u00edl\u00ed m\u011bnu t\u00e9to zem\u011b. Naopak, pokud trh o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee n\u011bjak\u00e1 zem\u011b sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby, m\u016f\u017ee doj\u00edt k odlivu kapit\u00e1lu, co\u017e povede k oslaben\u00ed m\u011bny t\u00e9to zem\u011b.
    \n P\u0159\u00edklad:<\/strong> pokud trh o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee Feder\u00e1ln\u00ed rezervn\u00ed syst\u00e9m (Fed) zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby, zat\u00edmco Evropsk\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka (ECB) udr\u017e\u00ed st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby, v\u00fdnosy dluhopis\u016f v USA mohou vzr\u016fst, rozd\u00edl ve v\u00fdnosech se roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed, co\u017e pos\u00edl\u00ed dolar.
    \n <\/li>\n<\/ol>
    \n\n

    Rozd\u00edl v\u00fdnos\u016f dluhopis\u016f a carry trade<\/strong> <\/h3>\n\nRozd\u00edl ve v\u00fdnosech je tak\u00e9 jedn\u00edm z z\u00e1klad\u016f carry trade na devizov\u00e9m trhu. Carry trade je b\u011b\u017en\u00e1 devizov\u00e1 strategie, kdy investo\u0159i si p\u016fj\u010duj\u00ed pen\u00edze v m\u011bn\u00e1ch s n\u00edzk\u00fdmi \u00farokov\u00fdmi sazbami a investuj\u00ed je do m\u011bn s vysok\u00fdmi \u00farokov\u00fdmi sazbami, aby z\u00edskali \u00farokov\u00fd rozd\u00edl. Kdy\u017e se rozd\u00edl ve v\u00fdnosech mezi dv\u011bma zem\u011bmi roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed, obchodn\u00edci s carry trade mohou zv\u00fd\u0161it popt\u00e1vku po m\u011bn\u00e1ch s vysok\u00fdm v\u00fdnosem, co\u017e d\u00e1le pos\u00edl\u00ed tuto m\u011bnu.
    \n\n\"\"\n\n
    P\u0159\u00edklad: p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dejme, \u017ee \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby v Japonsku jsou velmi n\u00edzk\u00e9, zat\u00edmco \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby v Austr\u00e1lii jsou vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed, investo\u0159i si mohou p\u016fj\u010dit v jenu a pot\u00e9 p\u0159ev\u00e9st prost\u0159edky na australsk\u00fd dolar, aby z\u00edskali \u00farokov\u00fd rozd\u00edl. Pokud v\u00fdnosy v Austr\u00e1lii nad\u00e1le rostou a Japonsko udr\u017euje n\u00edzk\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby, australsk\u00fd dolar m\u016f\u017ee nad\u00e1le posilovat.

    \n\n

    Vliv rozd\u00edlu v\u00fdnos\u016f na hlavn\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00e9 p\u00e1ry<\/strong> <\/h3>\n\nRozd\u00edl ve v\u00fdnosech m\u00e1 zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed vliv na n\u011bkter\u00e9 hlavn\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00e9 p\u00e1ry. Nap\u0159\u00edklad: 

    \n\n
      \n
    1. Euro v\u016f\u010di dolaru:<\/strong> Rozd\u00edl ve v\u00fdnosech mezi USA a euroz\u00f3nou je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdm ukazatelem pro EUR \/ USD. Pokud jsou v\u00fdnosy dluhopis\u016f v USA vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v euroz\u00f3n\u011b a rozd\u00edl se roz\u0161i\u0159uje, obvykle to pos\u00edl\u00ed dolar a zp\u016fsob\u00ed pokles sm\u011bnn\u00e9ho kurzu EUR \/ USD. Naopak, pokud v\u00fdnosy v euroz\u00f3n\u011b vzrostou a z\u00fa\u017e\u00ed rozd\u00edl v\u016f\u010di USA, m\u016f\u017ee to podpo\u0159it pos\u00edlen\u00ed eura.<\/li>\n
    2. Dolar v\u016f\u010di jenu:<\/strong> Rozd\u00edl ve v\u00fdnosech mezi USA a Japonskem je tak\u00e9 d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdm faktorem ur\u010duj\u00edc\u00edm v\u00fdvoj USD \/ JPY. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee Japonsko dlouhodob\u011b udr\u017euje n\u00edzkou \u00farokovou politiku, kdy\u017e v\u00fdnosy v USA vzrostou, rozd\u00edl ve v\u00fdnosech se roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed, co\u017e m\u016f\u017ee pos\u00edlit dolar v\u016f\u010di jenu.<\/li>\n
    3. Libra v\u016f\u010di dolaru:<\/strong> Rozd\u00edl ve v\u00fdnosech mezi Velkou Brit\u00e1ni\u00ed a USA tak\u00e9 ovliv\u0148uje v\u00fdvoj libry. Pokud v\u00fdnosy v Brit\u00e1nii vzrostou a z\u00fa\u017e\u00ed rozd\u00edl v\u016f\u010di USA, m\u016f\u017ee to v\u00e9st k pos\u00edlen\u00ed libry v\u016f\u010di dolaru, a naopak.<\/li>\n<\/ol>
      \n\n

      Jak interpretovat zm\u011bny v rozd\u00edlu v\u00fdnos\u016f<\/strong> <\/h3>\n\nZm\u011bny v rozd\u00edlu v\u00fdnos\u016f odr\u00e1\u017eej\u00ed \u00fapravy trhu ohledn\u011b ekonomick\u00fdch vyhl\u00eddek a m\u011bnov\u00e9 politiky, a proto je t\u0159eba pe\u010dliv\u011b sledovat n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed body: 

      \n\n
        \n
      1. Roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed rozd\u00edlu v\u00fdnos\u016f:<\/strong> Kdy\u017e se rozd\u00edl v\u00fdnos\u016f mezi dv\u011bma zem\u011bmi roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed, obvykle to nazna\u010duje, \u017ee investo\u0159i preferuj\u00ed zem\u011b s vy\u0161\u0161\u00edmi v\u00fdnosy, co\u017e m\u016f\u017ee v\u00e9st k p\u0159\u00edlivu kapit\u00e1lu do t\u00e9to zem\u011b a pos\u00edlen\u00ed jej\u00ed m\u011bny. Nap\u0159\u00edklad, pokud v\u00fdnosy v USA rostou rychleji ne\u017e v euroz\u00f3n\u011b, dolar m\u016f\u017ee pos\u00edlit.<\/li>\n
      2. Z\u00fa\u017een\u00ed rozd\u00edlu v\u00fdnos\u016f:<\/strong> Kdy\u017e se rozd\u00edl v\u00fdnos\u016f z\u00fa\u017e\u00ed, m\u016f\u017ee to nazna\u010dovat, \u017ee d\u016fv\u011bra trhu v zem\u011b s vysok\u00fdmi v\u00fdnosy sl\u00e1bne, nebo \u017ee d\u016fv\u011bra v zem\u011b s n\u00edzk\u00fdmi v\u00fdnosy roste. To m\u016f\u017ee v\u00e9st k odlivu kapit\u00e1lu z vysokov\u00fdnosov\u00fdch zem\u00ed, co\u017e oslab\u00ed jejich m\u011bnu.<\/li>\n
      3. Obr\u00e1cen\u00ed rozd\u00edlu v\u00fdnos\u016f:<\/strong> Kdy\u017e dojde k obr\u00e1cen\u00ed rozd\u00edlu v\u00fdnos\u016f mezi dv\u011bma zem\u011bmi, tedy kdy\u017e zem\u011b, kter\u00e1 m\u011bla d\u0159\u00edve ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdnosy, nyn\u00ed p\u0159ekon\u00e1 druhou zemi, m\u016f\u017ee to m\u00edt v\u00fdznamn\u00fd dopad na sm\u011bnn\u00fd kurz. Nap\u0159\u00edklad, pokud v\u00fdnosy v euroz\u00f3n\u011b p\u0159ekro\u010d\u00ed v\u00fdnosy v USA, trh m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159ej\u00edt z dolaru na euro, co\u017e pos\u00edl\u00ed euro.<\/li>\n<\/ol>
        \n\n

        Z\u00e1v\u011br: Pochopen\u00ed hodnoty rozd\u00edlu v\u00fdnos\u016f<\/strong> <\/h3>\n\nRozd\u00edl v\u00fdnos\u016f je jedn\u00edm z d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdch ukazatel\u016f ovliv\u0148uj\u00edc\u00edch devizov\u00fd trh, kter\u00fd m\u016f\u017ee odr\u00e1\u017eet relativn\u00ed n\u00e1zory trhu na ekonomickou situaci a m\u011bnovou politiku obou zem\u00ed. Sledov\u00e1n\u00edm zm\u011bn v rozd\u00edlu v\u00fdnos\u016f mohou investo\u0159i l\u00e9pe p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bt v\u00fdvoj sm\u011bnn\u00fdch kurz\u016f a vypracovat efektivn\u00ed obchodn\u00ed strategie. Tato analytick\u00e1 metoda je z\u00e1sadn\u00ed pro ty, kte\u0159\u00ed cht\u011bj\u00ed na devizov\u00e9m trhu vyu\u017e\u00edt trend\u016f a p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost\u00ed v oblasti \u00farokov\u00fdch rozd\u00edl\u016f.
        \n<\/span><\/div><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
        \n\t\t\t\t
        \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
        \n\t\t\t\t\t
        \n\t\t\t\t
        \n\t\t\t\t\t
        \n\t\t\t\t
        \n\nAhoj, jsme v\u00fdzkumn\u00fd t\u00fdm Mr.Forex<\/a><\/strong>
        \n\nObchodov\u00e1n\u00ed vy\u017eaduje nejen spr\u00e1vn\u00e9 my\u0161len\u00ed, ale tak\u00e9 u\u017eite\u010dn\u00e9 n\u00e1stroje a post\u0159ehy. Zam\u011b\u0159ujeme se na recenze glob\u00e1ln\u00edch broker\u016f, nastaven\u00ed obchodn\u00edch syst\u00e9m\u016f (MT4 \/ MT5, EA, VPS) a z\u00e1klady forexov\u00e9 praxe. Osobn\u011b v\u00e1s nau\u010d\u00edme ovl\u00e1dnout \"n\u00e1vod k obsluze\" finan\u010dn\u00edch trh\u016f a vybudovat profesion\u00e1ln\u00ed obchodn\u00ed prost\u0159ed\u00ed od nuly.
        \n
        \n\nPokud chcete p\u0159ej\u00edt od teorie k praxi:<\/strong>
        \n1. Pomozte sd\u00edlet tento \u010dl\u00e1nek, aby pravdu vid\u011blo v\u00edce obchodn\u00edk\u016f.
        \n2. P\u0159e\u010dt\u011bte si dal\u0161\u00ed \u010dl\u00e1nky t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00ed se         v\u00fduky Forexu<\/a>.\n<\/span><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        Rozd\u00edl v v\u00fdnosech z dluhopis\u016f je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdm faktorem ovliv\u0148uj\u00edc\u00edm sm\u011bnn\u00fd kurz, odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed trhu ohledn\u011b ekonomick\u00fdch vyhl\u00eddek a m\u011bnov\u00e9 politiky dvou zem\u00ed. Kdy\u017e je v\u00fdnos dluhopis\u016f jedn\u00e9 zem\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v\u00fdnosy druh\u00e9 zem\u011b, investo\u0159i se \u010dasto obracej\u00ed k m\u011bn\u00e1m s vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdnosem, co\u017e podporuje apreciaci jejich sm\u011bnn\u00e9ho kurzu.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":46732,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[83],"tags":[128],"class_list":["post-47630","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-learn-forex","tag-no-google"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47630","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47630"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47630\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/46732"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47630"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47630"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47630"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}