{"id":59872,"date":"2025-10-09T21:16:26","date_gmt":"2025-10-09T13:16:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/?p=59872"},"modified":"2025-12-03T03:42:28","modified_gmt":"2025-12-02T19:42:28","slug":"trump-tariffs-market-shifts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/cs\/trump-tariffs-market-shifts\/","title":{"rendered":"3 hlubok\u00e9 zm\u011bny, kter\u00e9 mus\u00edte pochopit \u0161est m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f po Trumpov\u00fdch clech"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"59872\" class=\"elementor elementor-59872\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-a98d5d2 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"a98d5d2\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f98416e elementor-widget elementor-widget-html translation-block\" data-id=\"f98416e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"html.default\"><span>\n<h2><strong>Z\u00e1znamy finan\u010dn\u00edho odborn\u00edka o trhu: Kde se skr\u00fdvaj\u00ed p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti v t\u00e9to bou\u0159i, kter\u00e1 p\u0159etv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed pravidla?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<h3><strong>\u00davod: Ten telefon\u00e1t p\u0159ed \u0161esti m\u011bs\u00edci<\/strong><\/h3>\nSt\u00e1le si pamatuji, jak p\u0159ed \u0161esti m\u011bs\u00edci zpr\u00e1va o vysok\u00fdch clech Trumpa zas\u00e1hla trh jako bomba, telefony v kancel\u00e1\u0159i a komunika\u010dn\u00ed aplikace nep\u0159est\u00e1valy zvonit. Panika je naka\u017eliv\u00e1 a moji klienti se v\u0161ichni ptali na tot\u00e9\u017e: \"Zhrout\u00ed se trh? M\u00e1m v\u0161echno prodat?\"\n<br><br>\nTehdy byla moje odpov\u011b\u010f jednoduch\u00e1: \"Zat\u00edm nic ned\u011blejte. Dejme tomu \u010das na pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed, skute\u010dn\u00fd dopad se nikdy pln\u011b neprojev\u00ed hned prvn\u00ed den.\"\n<br><br>\nUplynul p\u016flrok. Trh pro\u0161el dramatick\u00fdmi v\u00fdkyvy a zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee na\u0161el k\u0159ehkou rovnov\u00e1hu. Nyn\u00ed je \u010das p\u0159edlo\u017eit moji zpr\u00e1vu o pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed. Zisky a ztr\u00e1ty na burzovn\u00edch \u00fa\u010dtech jsou jen povrchn\u00edm jevem; pod hladinou prob\u00edhaj\u00ed t\u0159i hlub\u0161\u00ed a velkolep\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zm\u011bny. Pochopit tyto t\u0159i body je mnohem d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e h\u00e1dat z\u00edt\u0159ej\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdkyvy.\n<br><br>\n\n<h2><strong>Zm\u011bna \u010d. 1: \"Pouta\" centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky \u2013 P\u0159\u00edzrak inflace a dilema politiky<\/strong><\/h2>\nV posledn\u00edch \u0161esti m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch se trh nejv\u00edce tr\u00e1pil snahou uhodnout \u00famysly Feder\u00e1ln\u00edho rezervn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu (Fed). Ale pravdou je, \u017ee v\u011b\u0159\u00edm, \u017ee i samotn\u00fd Fed se ocitl v dilematu, jako obr v poutech.\n<br><br>\nTato pouta jsou p\u0159esn\u011b <strong>\"inflace\"<\/strong> za\u017eehnut\u00e1 cly.\n<br><br>\nCla p\u0159\u00edmo zvy\u0161uj\u00ed dovozn\u00ed n\u00e1klady a tento tlak se nevyhnuteln\u011b p\u0159en\u00e1\u0161\u00ed na kone\u010dnou spot\u0159ebu. Data o j\u00e1drov\u00e9m CPI, kter\u00e1 jsme vid\u011bli, jsou tvrdohlav\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e kdokoli o\u010dek\u00e1val. To zcela naru\u0161ilo p\u0159edchoz\u00ed line\u00e1rn\u00ed my\u0161len\u00ed trhu \"ekonomick\u00e9 zpomalen\u00ed \u2192 sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed sazeb Fedu\".\n<br><br>\nSou\u010dasn\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 je: ekonomika skute\u010dn\u011b vykazuje zn\u00e1mky zpomalen\u00ed kv\u016fli obchodn\u00edm spor\u016fm, ale inflace z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 vysok\u00e1. To uvrhlo Fed do no\u010dn\u00ed m\u016fry stagflace 70. let: zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed sazeb by mohlo prasknout bubliny aktiv a urychlit hospod\u00e1\u0159skou recesi; sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed sazeb by mohlo vypustit tygra inflace a v\u00e9st k \u00fapln\u00e9 ztr\u00e1t\u011b kontroly.\n<br><br>\nProto je sou\u010dasn\u00e1 volatilita trhu z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti p\u0159\u00edm\u00fdm d\u016fsledkem toho, \u017ee centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka m\u00e1 sv\u00e1zan\u00e9 ruce, co\u017e vede k v\u00fdrazn\u00e9mu sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed p\u0159edv\u00eddatelnosti politiky. Po dlouhou dobu si budeme muset zvykat na obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed v tomto m\u011bnov\u011bpolitick\u00e9m prost\u0159ed\u00ed <strong>\"tance v poutech\".<\/strong>\n<br><br>\n\n<h2><strong>Zm\u011bna \u010d. 2: \"Trhliny\" v globalizaci \u2013 Restrukturalizace dodavatelsk\u00e9ho \u0159et\u011bzce a velk\u00e9 p\u0159eskupen\u00ed v pr\u016fmyslu<\/strong><\/h2>\nPokud je nesn\u00e1z centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fdm rozporem, pak zm\u011bny v glob\u00e1ln\u00edm dodavatelsk\u00e9m \u0159et\u011bzci jsou pomalou, ale hlubokou \"tichou revoluc\u00ed\". Trumpova cla jsou jako obrovsk\u00fd k\u00e1men hozen\u00fd do klidn\u00e9ho jezera; a\u010dkoli se vlnky nakonec uklidn\u00ed, ekosyst\u00e9m na dn\u011b jezera se trvale zm\u011bnil.\n<br><br>\nV posledn\u00edch \u0161esti m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch jsem str\u00e1vil mnoho \u010dasu \u010dten\u00edm firemn\u00edch finan\u010dn\u00edch zpr\u00e1v a p\u0159epis\u016f konferen\u010dn\u00edch hovor\u016f a jedna fr\u00e1ze byla zmi\u0148ov\u00e1na opakovan\u011b: <strong>\"diverzifikace dodavatelsk\u00e9ho \u0159et\u011bzce.\"<\/strong> To nejsou jen pr\u00e1zdn\u00e1 slova. Od technologick\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu po tradi\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdrobu pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed spole\u010dnosti skute\u010dn\u00e9 pen\u00edze k p\u0159esunu v\u00fdrobn\u00edch kapacit z jednotliv\u00fdch trh\u016f a budov\u00e1n\u00ed odoln\u011bj\u0161\u00edch, v\u00edceregion\u00e1ln\u00edch dodavatelsk\u00fdch s\u00edt\u00ed.\n<br><br>\nTato transformace vytvo\u0159ila jasn\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bze a pora\u017een\u00e9:\n<br><br>\n<ul>\n  <li><strong>Pora\u017een\u00ed:<\/strong> Spole\u010dnosti, kter\u00e9 se d\u0159\u00edve siln\u011b spol\u00e9haly na model \"v\u00fdroba na jednom trhu, prodej po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b\". Jejich ziskov\u00e9 mar\u017ee a ocen\u011bn\u00ed dostaly dvoj\u00ed z\u00e1sah.<\/li>\n  <br>\n  <li><strong>V\u00edt\u011bzov\u00e9:<\/strong> Spole\u010dnosti s lokalizovan\u00fdmi dodavatelsk\u00fdmi \u0159et\u011bzci nebo jejich\u017e v\u00fdrobn\u00ed z\u00e1kladny se nach\u00e1zej\u00ed v zem\u00edch, kter\u00e9 t\u011b\u017e\u00ed z \"efektu p\u0159esm\u011brov\u00e1n\u00ed objedn\u00e1vek\" (jako je Vietnam, Mexiko, Indie), dost\u00e1vaj\u00ed \u0161anci na p\u0159ehodnocen\u00ed.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<br>\nToto \"velk\u00e9 p\u0159eskupen\u00ed\" teprve za\u010dalo. Jako investo\u0159i je nyn\u00ed d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e kdy jindy prozkoumat rizika dodavatelsk\u00e9ho \u0159et\u011bzce ve va\u0161em portfoliu.\n<br><br>\n\n<h2><strong>Zm\u011bna \u010d. 3: \"P\u0159epozicov\u00e1n\u00ed\" americk\u00e9ho dolaru \u2013 Mocensk\u00e1 hra na devizov\u00e9m trhu<\/strong><\/h2>\nPod hlukem akciov\u00e9ho trhu se na devizov\u00e9m trhu odehr\u00e1v\u00e1 hlub\u0161\u00ed mocensk\u00e1 hra, jej\u00edm\u017e hlavn\u00edm hrdinou je americk\u00fd dolar.\n<br><br>\nV minulosti byl americk\u00fd dolar v dob\u00e1ch tr\u017en\u00edch turbulenc\u00ed obvykle nesporn\u00fdm <strong>\"kr\u00e1lem bezpe\u010dn\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edstav\u016f\".<\/strong> Ale tento incident s cly u\u010dinil roli dolaru extr\u00e9mn\u011b slo\u017eitou. Na jedn\u00e9 stran\u011b glob\u00e1ln\u00ed nejistota st\u00e1le zp\u016fsob\u00ed, \u017ee finan\u010dn\u00ed prost\u0159edky kr\u00e1tkodob\u011b pote\u010dou do dolaru; ale na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b celn\u00ed politika sama o sob\u011b z\u00e1sadn\u011b ot\u0159\u00e1s\u00e1 dlouhodob\u00fdm postaven\u00edm dolaru.\n<br><br>\nPro\u010d tomu tak je? Proto\u017ee vysok\u00e1 cla oslabuj\u00ed obchodn\u00ed konkurenceschopnost USA a v\u00fdsledn\u00e9 obavy z inflace a hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 recese omezuj\u00ed schopnost Fedu zvy\u0161ovat sazby. Dlouhodob\u00e1 s\u00edla n\u00e1rodn\u00ed m\u011bny nakonec z\u00e1vis\u00ed \u043d\u0430 jej\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 s\u00edle a fisk\u00e1ln\u00edm zdrav\u00ed. Z tohoto pohledu celn\u00ed politika nepochybn\u011b p\u0159e\u010derp\u00e1v\u00e1 budoucnost dolaru.\n<br><br>\nV posledn\u00edch \u0161esti m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch jsme pozorovali, \u017ee kdykoli vzroste averze k riziku, zna\u010dn\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st prost\u0159edk\u016f krom\u011b toku do dolaru tak\u00e9 znateln\u011b proud\u00ed do tradi\u010dn\u00edch bezpe\u010dn\u00fdch m\u011bn, jako je <strong>japonsk\u00fd jen (JPY)<\/strong> a <strong>\u0161v\u00fdcarsk\u00fd frank (CHF)<\/strong>. Sou\u010dasn\u011b centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b urychluj\u00ed diverzifikaci sv\u00fdch devizov\u00fdch rezerv.\n<br><br>\nTo n\u00e1m \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee pozice americk\u00e9ho dolaru se ti\u0161e m\u011bn\u00ed z \"jedin\u00e9ho kr\u00e1le\" na <strong>\"nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00edho z feud\u00e1ln\u00edch p\u00e1n\u016f.\"<\/strong> Pro obchodn\u00edky na devizov\u00e9m trhu to znamen\u00e1 novou \u00e9ru v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed volatility, ale tak\u00e9 rozmanit\u011bj\u0161\u00edch obchodn\u00edch p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost\u00ed.\n<br><br>\n\n<h2><strong>Moje strategie zvl\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed: Jak p\u0159e\u017e\u00edt a vyd\u011blat v p\u0159etvo\u0159en\u00fdch pravidlech?<\/strong><\/h2>\nPodle t\u011bchto nov\u00fdch pravidel byly m\u00e9 investi\u010dn\u00ed a obchodn\u00ed strategie tak\u00e9 odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00edm zp\u016fsobem upraveny. Z\u00e1kladn\u00ed my\u0161lenkou ji\u017e nen\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u00eddat trh, ale \u0159\u00eddit riziko a udr\u017eovat flexibilitu.\n<br><br>\n<ul>\n  <li><strong>Sn\u00ed\u017eit expozici v\u016f\u010di riziku, zv\u00fd\u0161it pod\u00edl hotovosti:<\/strong> V prost\u0159ed\u00ed nejist\u00fdch politik centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank a vysok\u00fdch geopolitick\u00fdch rizik je sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed celkov\u00e9 p\u00e1ky a expozice v\u016f\u010di riziku nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed prioritou. \"Pen\u00edze v ruce, klid v du\u0161i\" je z\u00e1kladem pro udr\u017een\u00ed racionality a iniciativy v chaotick\u00e9 situaci.<\/li>\n  <br>\n  <li><strong>Od \"v\u00fdb\u011bru akci\u00ed\" k \"v\u00fdb\u011bru dodavatelsk\u00fdch \u0159et\u011bzc\u016f\":<\/strong> Nyn\u00ed v\u011bnuji v\u00edce pozornosti \"pozici spole\u010dnosti v pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9m \u0159et\u011bzci\". Nach\u00e1z\u00ed se na stran\u011b p\u0159\u00edjemc\u016f restrukturalizace dodavatelsk\u00e9ho \u0159et\u011bzce? M\u00e1 cenovou s\u00edlu p\u0159en\u00e9st n\u00e1klady na inflaci? D\u016fle\u017eitost t\u011bchto makroekonomick\u00fdch faktor\u016f nyn\u00ed dokonce p\u0159evy\u0161uje d\u016fle\u017eitost jednotliv\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy spole\u010dnosti.<\/li>\n  <br>\n  <li><strong>Hled\u00e1n\u00ed \"asymetrick\u00fdch\" obchodn\u00edch p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost\u00ed:<\/strong> Budu tr\u00e1vit v\u00edce \u010dasu \u010dek\u00e1n\u00edm na p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti, kde \"potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fdnos v\u00fdrazn\u011b p\u0159evy\u0161uje potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed ztr\u00e1tu\". Takov\u00e9 okam\u017eiky, kdy se cena v\u00fdrazn\u011b odchyluje od hodnoty, se \u010dasto objevuj\u00ed, kdy\u017e je n\u00e1lada na trhu extr\u00e9mn\u011b pesimistick\u00e1 nebo optimistick\u00e1. Zbytek \u010dasu si vyb\u00edr\u00e1m trp\u011bliv\u011b \u010dekat, proto\u017ee kdy\u017e je sm\u011br nejasn\u00fd, nejlep\u0161\u00ed strategi\u00ed je \"neobchodovat\".<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<br>\n\n<h2><strong>Z\u00e1v\u011br: Zlomov\u00fd bod \u00e9ry<\/strong><\/h2>\nToto nen\u00ed jen ud\u00e1lost s cly; je to pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b zlomov\u00fd bod \u00e9ry \u2013 posun od triumf\u00e1ln\u00edho pochodu globalizace za posledn\u00edch t\u0159icet let k nov\u00e9 f\u00e1zi pln\u00e9 t\u0159enic a konkurence.\n<br><br>\nJako obchodn\u00edci nen\u00ed na\u0161\u00edm \u00fakolem p\u0159edpov\u00eddat budoucnost, ale pochopit sou\u010dasn\u00e9 zm\u011bny a podle toho upravit na\u0161e plachty. Tato bou\u0159e je kriz\u00ed pro ty, kdo se dr\u017e\u00ed star\u00fdch pravidel; ale pro ty, kte\u0159\u00ed dok\u00e1\u017e\u00ed pochopit nov\u00e1 pravidla a z\u016fstat flexibiln\u00ed, je to <strong>obrovsk\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost k nov\u00e9mu rozd\u00e1n\u00ed karet<\/strong>.\n<\/span><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ccbf1bd elementor-widget elementor-widget-template\" data-id=\"ccbf1bd\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"template.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-template\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"container\" data-elementor-id=\"49848\" class=\"elementor elementor-49848\" data-elementor-post-type=\"elementor_library\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-43b58eaa e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"43b58eaa\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-83f27ac elementor-widget elementor-widget-html translation-block\" data-id=\"83f27ac\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"html.default\"><span>\n<strong style=\"font-size: 1.2em\">\nAhoj, jsme <a href=\"https:\/\/mister.forex\/cs\/about-us\/\" target=\"_blank\" style=\"text-decoration: underline\">v\u00fdzkumn\u00fd t\u00fdm Mr.Forex<\/a><\/strong><br>\n\nObchodov\u00e1n\u00ed vy\u017eaduje nejen spr\u00e1vn\u00e9 my\u0161len\u00ed, ale tak\u00e9 u\u017eite\u010dn\u00e9 n\u00e1stroje a post\u0159ehy. Zam\u011b\u0159ujeme se na recenze glob\u00e1ln\u00edch broker\u016f, nastaven\u00ed obchodn\u00edch syst\u00e9m\u016f (MT4 \/ MT5, EA, VPS) a z\u00e1klady forexov\u00e9 praxe. Osobn\u011b v\u00e1s nau\u010d\u00edme ovl\u00e1dnout \"n\u00e1vod k obsluze\" finan\u010dn\u00edch trh\u016f a vybudovat profesion\u00e1ln\u00ed obchodn\u00ed prost\u0159ed\u00ed od nuly.<br>\n<br>\n\n<strong>Pokud chcete p\u0159ej\u00edt od teorie k praxi:<\/strong><br>\n1. Pomozte sd\u00edlet tento \u010dl\u00e1nek, aby pravdu vid\u011blo v\u00edce obchodn\u00edk\u016f.<br>\n2. P\u0159e\u010dt\u011bte si dal\u0161\u00ed \u010dl\u00e1nky t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00ed se <a href=\"https:\/\/mister.forex\/cs\/category\/learn-forex\/\" target=\"_blank\">v\u00fduky Forexu<\/a>.\n<\/span><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0160est m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f po Trumpov\u00fdch clech skute\u010dn\u00e9 zm\u011bny teprve za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed. Tento \u010dl\u00e1nek podrobn\u011b analyzuje t\u0159i hlavn\u00ed trendy \u2013 infla\u010dn\u00ed tlaky, restrukturalizaci dodavatelsk\u00e9ho \u0159et\u011bzce a zm\u011bnu pozice americk\u00e9ho dolaru \u2013 a nab\u00edz\u00ed profesion\u00e1ln\u00ed budouc\u00ed investi\u010dn\u00ed strategie, kter\u00e9 v\u00e1m pomohou naj\u00edt sm\u011br v nov\u00fdch pravidlech trhu.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":59874,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[94],"tags":[128],"class_list":["post-59872","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-analysis","tag-no-google"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59872","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=59872"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59872\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/59874"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=59872"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=59872"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=59872"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}