{"id":74473,"date":"2026-10-25T18:55:45","date_gmt":"2026-10-25T10:55:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/?page_id=74473"},"modified":"2026-10-26T12:21:37","modified_gmt":"2026-10-26T04:21:37","slug":"calmar-ratio-etf-risk-adjusted-return","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/tr\/calmar-ratio-etf-risk-adjusted-return\/","title":{"rendered":"Calmar Oran\u0131: ETF ve Kantitatif Stratejilerde Getiri ve Risk"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-page\" data-elementor-id=\"74473\" class=\"elementor elementor-74473\" data-elementor-post-type=\"page\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-88f3a17 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"88f3a17\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4b47d9f elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"4b47d9f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h1 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Y\u00fcksek Getiri Riski Hakl\u0131 \u00c7\u0131kar\u0131r m\u0131? Calmar Oran\u0131 ile Maksimum D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc Anlamak<\/h1>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d802a71 elementor-hidden-desktop elementor-hidden-tablet elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"d802a71\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-74487 size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/mister.forex\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Calmar-Ratio-Thumbnail-500x281.webp\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" srcset=\"https:\/\/mister.forex\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Calmar-Ratio-Thumbnail-500x281.webp 500w, https:\/\/mister.forex\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Calmar-Ratio-Thumbnail-1200x675.webp 1200w, https:\/\/mister.forex\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Calmar-Ratio-Thumbnail-300x169.webp 300w, https:\/\/mister.forex\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Calmar-Ratio-Thumbnail-768x432.webp 768w, https:\/\/mister.forex\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Calmar-Ratio-Thumbnail-1536x864.webp 1536w, https:\/\/mister.forex\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Calmar-Ratio-Thumbnail-18x10.webp 18w, https:\/\/mister.forex\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Calmar-Ratio-Thumbnail.webp 1672w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-410e02b elementor-widget elementor-widget-html translation-block\" data-id=\"410e02b\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"html.default\"><span>\n\u0130ki yat\u0131r\u0131m stratejisini kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn.\n<br><br>\n\nHer ikisinin de y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f getirisi 20%.\n<br><br>\n\nAncak ge\u00e7mi\u015f performanslar\u0131n\u0131 ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 olarak inceledi\u011finizde \u00f6nemli bir farkla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131yorsunuz:\n<br><br>\n\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Strateji A:<\/strong> Maksimum d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f \u221210%.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Strateji B:<\/strong> Maksimum d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f \u221240%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<br>\n\nYaln\u0131zca y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f getiriye bakarsan\u0131z iki strateji e\u015fde\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fcnebilir.\n<br><br>\n\nOysa Strateji A'n\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015fte ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 en b\u00fcy\u00fck de\u011fer kayb\u0131, Strateji B'ninkinin yaln\u0131zca d\u00f6rtte biri kadard\u0131.\n<br><br>\n\n<strong>Ayn\u0131 20% getiri. Peki, maksimum 10% d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f m\u00fc yoksa 40% d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f m\u00fc? Hangisini se\u00e7erdiniz?<\/strong>\n<br><br>\n\nYat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar genellikle en y\u00fcksek y\u0131ll\u0131k getiriyi sa\u011flayan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 arar. Ancak bu getiriye ula\u015f\u0131l\u0131rken portf\u00f6y de\u011ferinin ne kadar d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fi \u00e7o\u011fu zaman yeterince de\u011ferlendirilmez.\n<br><br>\n\n\u0130\u015fte burada <strong>Calmar Oran\u0131 (Calmar Ratio)<\/strong> devreye girer.\n<br><br>\n\nBu g\u00f6sterge yaln\u0131zca elde edilen getiriyi de\u011fil, getirinin kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ge\u00e7mi\u015fte ya\u015fanan en b\u00fcy\u00fck de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 da dikkate al\u0131r.\n<br><br>\n\nETF'leri, hisse senetlerini ve kantitatif al\u0131m sat\u0131m stratejilerini de\u011ferlendirirken \u00f6nemli bir ger\u00e7e\u011fi ortaya koyar:\n<br><br>\n\n<strong>Daha y\u00fcksek y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri, daha iyi risk ayarl\u0131 performans demek de\u011fildir. \u00d6nemli olan, getirinin maksimum d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe de\u011fip de\u011fmedi\u011fidir.<\/strong>\n<br><br>\n\n\n<h2><strong>1. Calmar Oran\u0131 Nedir?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\nCalmar Oran\u0131, bir yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f getirisini ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki maksimum d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131ran risk ayarl\u0131 performans g\u00f6stergesidir.\n<br><br>\n\nBasit\u00e7e \u015fu soruyu yan\u0131tlamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur:\n<br><br>\n\n<strong>Strateji, getirisini elde etmek i\u00e7in ne kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015famak zorunda kald\u0131?<\/strong>\n<br><br>\n\nYayg\u0131n kullan\u0131lan form\u00fcl \u015f\u00f6yledir:\n<br><br>\n\n<strong>Calmar Oran\u0131 = bile\u015fik y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 (CAGR) \u00f7 maksimum d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn (MDD) mutlak de\u011feri<\/strong>\n<br><br>\n\nBurada:\n<br><br>\n\n<strong>Bile\u015fik y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 (Compound Annual Growth Rate, CAGR)<\/strong>, bir yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n belirli bir d\u00f6nemdeki b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini bile\u015fik getiri etkisini dikkate alarak y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131r.\n<br><br>\n\n<strong>Maksimum d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f (Maximum Drawdown, MDD)<\/strong>, incelenen d\u00f6nem i\u00e7inde \u00f6nceki bir zirveden daha sonraki bir dip noktaya kadar ya\u015fanan en b\u00fcy\u00fck y\u00fczdesel de\u011fer kayb\u0131d\u0131r.\n<br><br>\n\n\u00d6rne\u011fin:\n<br><br>\n\nBir stratejinin y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f getirisi 15%, maksimum d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ise \u221220% olsun.\n<br><br>\n\nHesaplama:\n<br><br>\n\n<strong>15% \u00f7 20% = 0.75<\/strong>\n<br><br>\n\nBuna g\u00f6re ilgili d\u00f6nemde y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f getirinin maksimum d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe oran\u0131 0.75'tir.\n<br><br>\n\nCalmar Oran\u0131 y\u00fczde de\u011fil, birimsiz bir say\u0131d\u0131r.\n<br><br>\n\nGetiri pozitif oldu\u011funda ve hesaplama y\u00f6ntemleri ayn\u0131 oldu\u011funda, daha y\u00fcksek oran genellikle en b\u00fcy\u00fck tarihsel d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe k\u0131yasla daha fazla y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f getiri elde edildi\u011fini g\u00f6sterir.\n<br><br>\n\nAncak \u00f6nemli bir nokta vard\u0131r:\n<br><br>\n\n<strong>Calmar Oran\u0131'n\u0131n y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n daha g\u00fcvenli oldu\u011funu veya gelecekte daha iyi sonu\u00e7lar verece\u011fini garanti etmez.<\/strong>\n<br><br>\n\nBu oran ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki getiri-risk ili\u015fkisini de\u011ferlendirmeye yarar; k\u00e2r garantisi sunmaz veya gelecekteki kay\u0131plara bir \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r getirmez.\n<br><br>\n\n\n<h3><strong>Calmar Oran\u0131 ile MAR Oran\u0131 Aras\u0131ndaki Fark Nedir?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\nGeleneksel Calmar Oran\u0131 genellikle son 36 ayl\u0131k y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f getiri ve maksimum d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kullan\u0131larak hesaplan\u0131r.\n<br><br>\n\nBu nedenle yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemdeki risk ayarl\u0131 performans\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in uygundur.\n<br><br>\n\nAncak bir yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n farkl\u0131 piyasa d\u00f6ng\u00fclerindeki davran\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 anlamak amac\u0131yla ayn\u0131 form\u00fcl mevcut t\u00fcm tarihsel verilere de uygulanabilir.\n<br><br>\n\nBu makalede <strong>\u201cCAGR \u00f7 maksimum d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn mutlak de\u011feri\u201d<\/strong> form\u00fcl\u00fc korunmakta, fakat her yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n mevcut t\u00fcm ge\u00e7mi\u015fi kullan\u0131lmaktad\u0131r.\n<br><br>\n\nT\u00fcm tarihsel verileri temel alan bu yakla\u015f\u0131m <strong>Managed Account Reports Ratio (MAR Ratio)<\/strong> kavram\u0131yla ili\u015fkilidir.\n<br><br>\n\nBu nedenle a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki iki yakla\u015f\u0131m birbirinden ayr\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r:\n<br><br>\n\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Geleneksel Calmar Oran\u0131:<\/strong> Genellikle son 36 ay\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f getirisi ve maksimum d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc kullan\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li><strong>T\u00fcm ge\u00e7mi\u015f i\u00e7in getiri\/maksimum d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f oran\u0131:<\/strong> Mevcut t\u00fcm tarihsel verileri kullan\u0131r ve kavramsal olarak MAR Oran\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131yla \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<br>\n\nA\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki tablolarda <strong>t\u00fcm tarihsel d\u00f6nem i\u00e7in y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f getiri ile maksimum d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f aras\u0131ndaki oran<\/strong> g\u00f6sterilmektedir; bu de\u011fer geleneksel 36 ayl\u0131k Calmar Oran\u0131 de\u011fildir.\n<br><br>\n\nUzun tarihsel d\u00f6nemler, yaln\u0131zca yak\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015fe odaklanmak yerine farkl\u0131 piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131nda getiri ve risk ili\u015fkisinin anla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flar.\n<br><br>\n\nAncak bir s\u0131n\u0131rlama vard\u0131r: yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 tarihleri farkl\u0131d\u0131r.\n<br><br>\n\n<strong>T\u00fcm ge\u00e7mi\u015fi incelemek tek bir yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n risk profilini anlamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur. Adil bir kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma i\u00e7in yine de ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nem kullan\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/strong>\n<br><br>\n\n\n<h2><strong>2. Ayn\u0131 Getiri, 4 Kat Farkl\u0131 Calmar Oran\u0131<\/strong><\/h2>\n\nBa\u015flang\u0131\u00e7taki \u00f6rne\u011fimize d\u00f6nelim.\n<br><br>\n\n\u0130ki stratejinin tam olarak ayn\u0131 3 y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u00f6nemde, ayn\u0131 y\u00f6ntemle de\u011ferlendirildi\u011fini varsayal\u0131m.\n<br><br>\n\n<div>\n<table style=\"width:100%;min-width:600px;border-collapse:separate;border-spacing:0;border:1px solid #2D4273;border-radius:6px;text-align:center;font-family:'Inter',sans-serif;overflow:hidden\">\n<thead>\n<tr style=\"background-color:#15264D;color:#FFFFFF\">\n<th style=\"padding:15px;border-right:1px solid #FFFFFF;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\"><strong>G\u00f6sterge<\/strong><\/th>\n<th style=\"padding:15px;border-right:1px solid #FFFFFF;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\"><strong>Strateji A<\/strong><\/th>\n<th style=\"padding:15px;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\"><strong>Strateji B<\/strong><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr style=\"background-color:#FFFFFF\">\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;border-right:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\">Y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f getiri<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;border-right:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\">20%<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\">20%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"background-color:#FFFFFF\">\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;border-right:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\">Maksimum d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;border-right:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;color:#15264D\"><strong>\u221210%<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;color:#D83C34\"><strong>\u221240%<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"background-color:#FFFFFF\">\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;border-right:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\"><strong>Calmar Oran\u0131<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;border-right:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;color:#15264D\"><strong>2.00<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\"><strong>0.50<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<br>\n\nStrateji A:\n<br><br>\n\n<strong>20% \u00f7 10% = 2.00<\/strong>\n<br><br>\n\nStrateji B:\n<br><br>\n\n<strong>20% \u00f7 40% = 0.50<\/strong>\n<br><br>\n\nStratejilerin y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f getirileri ayn\u0131 olsa da Strateji A'n\u0131n Calmar Oran\u0131, Strateji B'ninkinin 4 kat\u0131d\u0131r.\n<br><br>\n\nBu fark\u0131n tamam\u0131 maksimum d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kaynaklanmaktad\u0131r.\n<br><br>\n\n<strong>Tek ba\u015f\u0131na getiri, o getiriyi elde etmek i\u00e7in \u00fcstlenilen riskin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc gizleyebilir.<\/strong>\n<br><br>\n\n\n<h3><strong>Daha Y\u00fcksek Getiri Her Zaman Daha \u0130yi Calmar Oran\u0131 m\u0131 Sa\u011flar?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\nHay\u0131r.\n<br><br>\n\nAyn\u0131 3 y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u00f6nemi kapsayan ba\u015fka bir varsay\u0131msal \u00f6rne\u011fi inceleyelim.\n<br><br>\n\n<div>\n<table style=\"width:100%;min-width:600px;border-collapse:separate;border-spacing:0;border:1px solid #2D4273;border-radius:6px;text-align:center;font-family:'Inter',sans-serif;overflow:hidden\">\n<thead>\n<tr style=\"background-color:#15264D;color:#FFFFFF\">\n<th style=\"padding:15px;border-right:1px solid #FFFFFF;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\"><strong>G\u00f6sterge<\/strong><\/th>\n<th style=\"padding:15px;border-right:1px solid #FFFFFF;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\"><strong>Strateji C<\/strong><\/th>\n<th style=\"padding:15px;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\"><strong>Strateji D<\/strong><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr style=\"background-color:#FFFFFF\">\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;border-right:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\">Y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f getiri<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;border-right:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\">12%<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\">24%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"background-color:#FFFFFF\">\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;border-right:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\">Maksimum d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;border-right:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;color:#15264D\"><strong>\u221210%<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;color:#D34B3A\"><strong>\u221230%<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"background-color:#FFFFFF\">\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;border-right:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\"><strong>Calmar Oran\u0131<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;border-right:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;color:#15264D\"><strong>1.20<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\"><strong>0.80<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<br>\n\nStrateji D, Strateji C'nin iki kat\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f getiri sa\u011flamaktad\u0131r; ancak maksimum d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc \u00fc\u00e7 kat daha b\u00fcy\u00fckt\u00fcr.\n<br><br>\n\nBu nedenle Strateji C'nin Calmar Oran\u0131 daha y\u00fcksektir.\n<br><br>\n\nPeki bu, Strateji C'nin her zaman daha iyi bir yat\u0131r\u0131m oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na m\u0131 gelir?\n<br><br>\n\nHay\u0131r. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n getiri hedefleri, likidite ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131 ve risk toleranslar\u0131 farkl\u0131d\u0131r.\n<br><br>\n\nAncak kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma \u00f6nemli bir soru ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131r:\n<br><br>\n\n<strong>Ek getiri, \u00e7ok daha derin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe katlanmaya de\u011fer mi?<\/strong>\n<br><br>\n\nCalmar Oran\u0131 tam da bu dengeyi de\u011ferlendirmeye yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur.\n<br><br>\n\n<strong>Not:<\/strong> Strateji A, B, C ve D yaln\u0131zca e\u011fitim amac\u0131yla olu\u015fturulmu\u015f varsay\u0131msal \u00f6rneklerdir. Herhangi bir ETF'nin, fonun veya belirli bir kantitatif stratejinin ger\u00e7ek performans\u0131n\u0131 temsil etmezler.\n<br><br>\n\n\n<h2><strong>3. Ger\u00e7ek Veriler: ETF Getirileri ve Maksimum D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\u015eimdi bu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 ger\u00e7ek piyasa verilerine uygulayal\u0131m.\n<br><br>\n\nD\u00f6rt tan\u0131nm\u0131\u015f yat\u0131r\u0131m arac\u0131n\u0131 inceleyece\u011fiz.\n<br><br>\n\n<strong>SPY: SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust<\/strong>\n<br><br>\n\nSPY, S&amp;P 500 endeksini takip eder ve ABD'de borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015firketlerin hisselerine yat\u0131r\u0131m olana\u011f\u0131 sunar.\n<br><br>\n\n<strong>QQQ: Invesco QQQ Trust<\/strong>\n<br><br>\n\nQQQ, Nasdaq-100 endeksini takip eder. B\u00fcy\u00fck teknoloji ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u015firketlerine g\u00f6rece y\u00fcksek a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verir.\n<br><br>\n\n<strong>BRK.B: Berkshire Hathaway B S\u0131n\u0131f\u0131 Hisseleri<\/strong>\n<br><br>\n\nBRK.B, farkl\u0131 i\u015fletmelere ve yat\u0131r\u0131mlara sahip halka a\u00e7\u0131k Berkshire Hathaway \u015firketinin B s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131 hisseleridir. Bu ara\u00e7 bir ETF de\u011fil, tekil bir hisse senedidir.\n<br><br>\n\n<strong>BND: Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF<\/strong>\n<br><br>\n\nBND, Vanguard'\u0131n geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 ABD tahvil piyasas\u0131 ETF'sidir. Ba\u015fl\u0131ca ABD devlet tahvilleri, \u015firket tahvilleri ve ipote\u011fe dayal\u0131 menkul k\u0131ymetler olmak \u00fczere yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir kredi notuna sahip tahvillere yat\u0131r\u0131m yapar.\n<br><br>\n\nBND nakit ya da risksiz bir varl\u0131k de\u011fildir. De\u011feri faiz oranlar\u0131, kredi spreadleri ve di\u011fer piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131 nedeniyle de\u011fi\u015febilir.\n<br><br>\n\nBu d\u00f6rt yat\u0131r\u0131m arac\u0131 farkl\u0131 varl\u0131k s\u0131n\u0131flar\u0131nda yer al\u0131r ve farkl\u0131 risk kaynaklar\u0131na sahiptir.\n<br><br>\n\nAma\u00e7 herkes i\u00e7in tek bir kazanan belirlemek de\u011fil, farkl\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlarda tarihsel getirilerin maksimum d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerle nas\u0131l ili\u015fkili oldu\u011funu anlamakt\u0131r.\n<br><br>\n\n\n<h3><strong>Ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7tan \u0130tibaren Uzun Vadeli Getiri ve Risk<\/strong><\/h3>\n\nA\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki tablo, 20 Ekim 2026 biti\u015f tarihi esas al\u0131narak daha \u00f6nce derlenmi\u015f halka a\u00e7\u0131k piyasa verilerini \u00f6zetlemektedir.\n<br><br>\n\n<div>\n<table style=\"width:100%;min-width:850px;border-collapse:separate;border-spacing:0;border:1px solid #2D4273;border-radius:6px;text-align:center;font-family:'Inter',sans-serif;overflow:hidden\">\n<thead>\n<tr style=\"background-color:#15264D;color:#FFFFFF\">\n<th style=\"padding:15px;border-right:1px solid #FFFFFF;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\"><strong>Yat\u0131r\u0131m<\/strong><\/th>\n<th style=\"padding:15px;border-right:1px solid #FFFFFF;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\"><strong>Ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131<\/strong><\/th>\n<th style=\"padding:15px;border-right:1px solid #FFFFFF;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\"><strong>CAGR<\/strong><\/th>\n<th style=\"padding:15px;border-right:1px solid #FFFFFF;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\"><strong>Maksimum d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f<\/strong><\/th>\n<th style=\"padding:15px;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\"><strong>T\u00fcm ge\u00e7mi\u015fin getiri\/d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f oran\u0131<\/strong><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr style=\"background-color:#FFFFFF\">\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;border-right:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\"><strong>SPY<\/strong><br>ABD b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli hisse ETF'si<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;border-right:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\">1993<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;border-right:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\">+10.82%<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;border-right:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;color:#C62828\"><strong>\u221255.19%<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\"><strong>0.20<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"background-color:#FFFFFF\">\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;border-right:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\"><strong>QQQ<\/strong><br>Nasdaq-100 ETF'si<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;border-right:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\">1999<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;border-right:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\">+10.73%<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;border-right:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;color:#8E1616\"><strong>\u221282.96%<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\"><strong>0.13<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"background-color:#FFFFFF\">\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;border-right:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\"><strong>BRK.B<\/strong><br>Berkshire Hathaway B hissesi<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;border-right:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\">1996<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;border-right:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\">+10.89%<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;border-right:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;color:#C62828\"><strong>\u221253.86%<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\"><strong>0.20<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"background-color:#FFFFFF\">\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;border-right:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\"><strong>BND<\/strong><br>ABD tahvil ETF'si<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;border-right:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\">2007<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;border-right:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\">+2.89%<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;border-right:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;color:#B45336\"><strong>\u221218.58%<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\"><strong>0.16<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<br>\n\n<strong>Veri kaynaklar\u0131:<\/strong>\n<br><br>\n\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investmentvisual.com\/etfs\/spy\/returns\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Investment Visual | SPY tarihsel getirileri<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investmentvisual.com\/etfs\/qqq\/returns\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Investment Visual | QQQ tarihsel getirileri<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investmentvisual.com\/stocks\/brk-b\/returns\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Investment Visual | BRK.B tarihsel getirileri<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investmentvisual.com\/etfs\/bnd\/returns\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Investment Visual | BND tarihsel getirileri<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<br>\n\n<strong>Veri notlar\u0131:<\/strong> Tablo, 20 Ekim 2026 tarihine kadar daha \u00f6nce derlenen, temett\u00fclerin yeniden yat\u0131r\u0131ma y\u00f6nlendirilmesini i\u00e7eren tarihsel toplam getiri verilerini kullan\u0131r. Son s\u00fctun, CAGR'nin maksimum d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn mutlak de\u011ferine b\u00f6l\u00fcnmesiyle hesaplanm\u0131\u015f ve iki ondal\u0131k basama\u011fa yuvarlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r; geleneksel 36 ayl\u0131k Calmar Oran\u0131 de\u011fildir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 y\u0131llar\u0131 farkl\u0131d\u0131r ve BRK.B bir ETF de\u011fil, tekil hisse senedidir. Bu nedenle tablo, ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde ve \u00f6zde\u015f risk ko\u015fullar\u0131nda olu\u015fturulmu\u015f bir s\u0131ralama de\u011fil, her yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n tarihsel getiri ve risk profilinin a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131d\u0131r. Yay\u0131n \u00f6ncesinde verilerin biti\u015f tarihi ve kaynaklar\u0131n hesaplama y\u00f6ntemi yeniden do\u011frulanmal\u0131d\u0131r.\n<br><br>\n\nTablo, uzun vadeli y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f getiri ile maksimum d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f aras\u0131nda sabit bir oransal ili\u015fki bulunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir.\n<br><br>\n\n\u00d6rne\u011fin SPY ve BRK.B, kendi tarihsel d\u00f6nemlerinde benzer y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f getiriler ve yakla\u015f\u0131k ayn\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckte maksimum d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler ya\u015fam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu nedenle t\u00fcm ge\u00e7mi\u015f i\u00e7in getiri\/d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f oranlar\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 0.20'dir.\n<br><br>\n\nQQQ da \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f getiri sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ancak tarihsel olarak \u00e7ok daha derin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in oran\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckt\u00fcr.\n<br><br>\n\nBND ise farkl\u0131 bir profile sahiptir: daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f getiri ve daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tarihsel d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f. Bununla birlikte, bu durum oran\u0131n\u0131n hisse yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131ndan mutlaka daha y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na gelmez.\n<br><br>\n\n<strong>Daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck maksimum d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, daha iyi risk ayarl\u0131 getiriyi garanti etmez. Daha y\u00fcksek getiri de garanti etmez.<\/strong>\n<br><br>\n\nBelirleyici olan, getiri ile d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkidir.\n<br><br>\n\n\n<h3><strong>SPY ile QQQ: Daha Y\u00fcksek Getiri, Daha D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck Verimlilik mi?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\u00d6nceki tablo her yat\u0131r\u0131m i\u00e7in t\u00fcm mevcut tarihsel verileri kulland\u0131. Ancak ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 tarihlerindeki farkl\u0131l\u0131klar kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 etkileyebilir.\n<br><br>\n\nSPY ve QQQ'yu daha adil kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmak i\u00e7in ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemi kullanaca\u011f\u0131z.\n<br><br>\n\nA\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki veriler 10 Mart 1999 ile 20 Ekim 2026 aras\u0131n\u0131 kapsamaktad\u0131r.\n<br><br>\n\n<div>\n<table style=\"width:100%;min-width:650px;border-collapse:separate;border-spacing:0;border:1px solid #2D4273;border-radius:6px;text-align:center;font-family:'Inter',sans-serif;overflow:hidden\">\n<thead>\n<tr style=\"background-color:#15264D;color:#FFFFFF\">\n<th style=\"padding:15px;border-right:1px solid #FFFFFF;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\"><strong>G\u00f6sterge<\/strong><\/th>\n<th style=\"padding:15px;border-right:1px solid #FFFFFF;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\"><strong>SPY<\/strong><\/th>\n<th style=\"padding:15px;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\"><strong>QQQ<\/strong><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr style=\"background-color:#FFFFFF\">\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;border-right:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\">Y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f getiri (CAGR)<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;border-right:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\">+8.55%<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\">+10.73%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"background-color:#FFFFFF\">\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;border-right:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\">Maksimum d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f (MDD)<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;border-right:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;color:#C62828\"><strong>\u221255.19%<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;color:#8E1616\"><strong>\u221282.96%<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"background-color:#FFFFFF\">\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;border-right:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\"><strong>Ortak d\u00f6nemin getiri\/d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f oran\u0131<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;border-right:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\"><strong>0.15<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:15px;border-top:1px solid #2D4273;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle\"><strong>0.13<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<br>\n\n<strong>Kaynak:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investmentvisual.com\/compare\/qqq-vs-spy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Investment Visual | SPY ve QQQ tarihsel kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131<\/a>.\n<br><br>\n\nBu ortak d\u00f6nemde QQQ, SPY'dan daha y\u00fcksek y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f getiri elde etmi\u015ftir.\n<br><br>\n\nAncak QQQ'nun maksimum d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc de \u00e7ok daha derin olmu\u015ftur. Bu nedenle getiri\/d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f oran\u0131 biraz daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.\n<br><br>\n\nBu, SPY'\u0131n t\u00fcm yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in QQQ'dan daha uygun oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na gelmez.\n<br><br>\n\n\u00c7\u0131kar\u0131labilecek sonu\u00e7 daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131d\u0131r:\n<br><br>\n\n<strong>\u0130ncelenen d\u00f6nemde SPY'\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f getirisinin maksimum d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne oran\u0131, QQQ'nunkinden biraz daha y\u00fcksektir.<\/strong>\n<br><br>\n\nCalmar Oran\u0131 ve getiri\/d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f analizi tam da bu nedenle yararl\u0131d\u0131r: yaln\u0131zca y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f getiriye bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131rlar.\n<br><br>\n\n\n<h2><strong>4. Daha Y\u00fcksek Bir Oran Her Zaman Daha m\u0131 \u0130yidir?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\nHay\u0131r.\n<br><br>\n\nGeleneksel Calmar Oran\u0131 da t\u00fcm ge\u00e7mi\u015fi kapsayan getiri\/d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f oran\u0131 da kapsaml\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m analizinde kullan\u0131lan ara\u00e7lardan yaln\u0131zca biridir.\n<br><br>\n\nDikkate al\u0131nmas\u0131 gereken 4 \u00f6nemli s\u0131n\u0131rlama vard\u0131r.\n<br><br>\n\n\n<h3><strong>4.1 Ge\u00e7mi\u015f D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler Gelecekteki Kay\u0131plar\u0131 S\u0131n\u0131rlamaz<\/strong><\/h3>\n\nBir stratejinin tarihsel maksimum d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc yaln\u0131zca 20% olsa bile gelecekte \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fck kay\u0131plar ya\u015fanabilir.\n<br><br>\n\nY\u00fcksek oran, gelecekte daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri garanti etmez.\n<br><br>\n\n\n<h3><strong>4.2 \u00d6l\u00e7\u00fcm D\u00f6nemi Sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 De\u011fi\u015ftirebilir<\/strong><\/h3>\n\nYaln\u0131zca 3 y\u0131ll\u0131k ge\u00e7mi\u015fi olan bir strateji ile 20 y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n piyasa d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnden ge\u00e7mi\u015f bir ETF \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 ko\u015fullarda i\u015flem g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015f olabilir.\n<br><br>\n\nAyn\u0131 form\u00fcl\u00fc kullanmak bu farkl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortadan kald\u0131rmaz.\n<br><br>\n\nAyn\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n oran\u0131 bile se\u00e7ilen \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015febilir.\n<br><br>\n\n\n<h3><strong>4.3 Backtest Ger\u00e7ek Al\u0131m Sat\u0131m Performans\u0131 De\u011fildir<\/strong><\/h3>\n\nKantitatif stratejiler, i\u015flem kurallar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in genellikle tarihsel backtest y\u00f6ntemlerini kullan\u0131r.\n<br><br>\n\nAncak sonu\u00e7lar ge\u00e7mi\u015f verilere a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 uyum, veri yanl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, i\u015flem maliyeti varsay\u0131mlar\u0131 ve de\u011fi\u015fen piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131ndan etkilenebilir.\n<br><br>\n\nBacktest sonu\u00e7lar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek bir oran g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi, ger\u00e7ek i\u015flemlerde ayn\u0131 performans\u0131n elde edildi\u011fini kan\u0131tlamaz.\n<br><br>\n\n\n<h3><strong>4.4 Tek Bir G\u00f6sterge T\u00fcm Riskleri Kapsamaz<\/strong><\/h3>\n\nCalmar Oran\u0131 temelde y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f getiri ile tarihsel maksimum d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe dayan\u0131r.\n<br><br>\n\nKald\u0131ra\u00e7, likidite, kar\u015f\u0131 taraf riski, slippage, yo\u011funla\u015fma riski ve getiri kaynaklar\u0131 gibi unsurlar\u0131 b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcyle kapsamaz.\n<br><br>\n\nMaksimum d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f \u00e7ok k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck oldu\u011funda oran ola\u011fan d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde y\u00fcksek \u00e7\u0131kabilir. Maksimum d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u0131f\u0131rsa normal b\u00f6lme i\u015flemi tan\u0131ml\u0131 de\u011fildir.\n<br><br>\n\nY\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f getiri negatif oldu\u011funda yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 yaln\u0131zca bu orana g\u00f6re s\u0131ralamak da yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131 olabilir.\n<br><br>\n\n<strong>Calmar Oran\u0131'n\u0131 yard\u0131mc\u0131 analiz arac\u0131 olarak kullan\u0131n; yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n kalitesi hakk\u0131nda nihai karar olarak g\u00f6rmeyin.<\/strong>\n<br><br>\n\n\n<h2><strong>5. Risk Ayarl\u0131 Getiriler Nas\u0131l Do\u011fru Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\nForm\u00fcl\u00fc bilmek ilk ad\u0131md\u0131r. Do\u011fru uygulamak da en az bunun kadar \u00f6nemlidir.\n<br><br>\n\nETF'leri, fonlar\u0131 veya kantitatif stratejileri kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131rken a\u00e7\u0131klanan y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f getiriyi maksimum d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe b\u00f6l\u00fcp en y\u00fcksek sonucu se\u00e7mek yeterli de\u011fildir.\n<br><br>\n\nSa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma i\u00e7in en az 4 temel kontrol gerekir.\n<br><br>\n\n\n<h3><strong>5.1 Ayn\u0131 D\u00f6nemi Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131n<\/strong><\/h3>\n\nStrateji A'n\u0131n performans verileri 2010\u20132026 y\u0131llar\u0131n\u0131, Strateji B'nin verileri ise yaln\u0131zca 2023\u20132026 y\u0131llar\u0131n\u0131 kaps\u0131yorsa oranlar\u0131 do\u011frudan s\u0131ralamak do\u011fru de\u011fildir.\n<br><br>\n\nPiyasa e\u011filimleri, oynakl\u0131k ve \u00f6nemli risk olaylar\u0131 farkl\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015fmi\u015f olabilir.\n<br><br>\n\n\u00d6nce ortak d\u00f6nemi belirleyip ard\u0131ndan her iki strateji i\u00e7in CAGR, MDD ve getiri\/maksimum d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f oran\u0131n\u0131 yeniden hesaplamak daha uygundur.\n<br><br>\n\nBu nedenle 3. b\u00f6l\u00fcmde hem tam tarihsel veriler hem de SPY ile QQQ'nun ortak d\u00f6nemdeki kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 verilmi\u015ftir.\n<br><br>\n\n<strong>Tek bir yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 anlamak i\u00e7in t\u00fcm tarihini kullan\u0131n. Farkl\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmak i\u00e7in ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemi se\u00e7in.<\/strong>\n<br><br>\n\n\n<h3><strong>5.2 Hesaplama Y\u00f6ntemini Kontrol Edin<\/strong><\/h3>\n\nAyn\u0131 d\u00f6nem i\u00e7in bile farkl\u0131 veri sa\u011flay\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 farkl\u0131 getiri rakamlar\u0131 raporlayabilir.\n<br><br>\n\nBunun olas\u0131 nedenleri:\n<br><br>\n\n<ul>\n<li>Temett\u00fclerin ve di\u011fer da\u011f\u0131t\u0131mlar\u0131n yeniden yat\u0131r\u0131ma y\u00f6nlendirilip y\u00f6nlendirilmedi\u011fi.<\/li>\n<li>Y\u00f6netim \u00fccretleri, komisyonlar ve di\u011fer maliyetlerin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcl\u00fcp d\u00fc\u015f\u00fclmedi\u011fi.<\/li>\n<li>Kullan\u0131lan para birimi ve d\u00f6viz d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm y\u00f6ntemi.<\/li>\n<li>Maksimum d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn g\u00fcnl\u00fck, haftal\u0131k veya ayl\u0131k verilerle hesaplanmas\u0131.<\/li>\n<li>Kald\u0131ra\u00e7, finansman maliyetleri ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen slippage etkilerinin hesaba kat\u0131l\u0131p kat\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<br>\n\n\u00d6rne\u011fin g\u00fcnl\u00fck verilerle hesaplanan maksimum d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, yaln\u0131zca ay sonu verileriyle hesaplanandan daha derin olabilir. Ay ortas\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, ay sonuna kadar toparlanm\u0131\u015fsa ayl\u0131k kapan\u0131\u015f verilerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcnmeyebilir.\n<br><br>\n\nDolay\u0131s\u0131yla veri s\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 bozabilir.\n<br><br>\n\n<strong>Oranlar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmadan \u00f6nce verilerin tan\u0131mlar\u0131 ve hesaplama y\u00f6ntemlerinin uyumlu oldu\u011funu do\u011frulay\u0131n.<\/strong>\n<br><br>\n\n\n<h3><strong>5.3 Ger\u00e7ek Sonu\u00e7larla Backtestleri Ay\u0131r\u0131n<\/strong><\/h3>\n\nHer performans verisinin kan\u0131t de\u011feri ayn\u0131 de\u011fildir.\n<br><br>\n\n<strong>Ger\u00e7ek tarihsel performans<\/strong>, belirtilen d\u00f6nemde ger\u00e7ekten ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f piyasa hareketlerini veya i\u015flemleri yans\u0131t\u0131r.\n<br><br>\n\n<strong>Sim\u00fcle edilmi\u015f backtest<\/strong>, ge\u00e7mi\u015f verilere belirli i\u015flem kurallar\u0131n\u0131n uygulanmas\u0131yla hesaplanan varsay\u0131msal sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 g\u00f6sterir.\n<br><br>\n\n<strong>Strateji hedefleri<\/strong>, stratejinin ula\u015fmay\u0131 ama\u00e7lad\u0131\u011f\u0131 sonu\u00e7lard\u0131r; elde edilmi\u015f ger\u00e7ek sonu\u00e7lar de\u011fildir.\n<br><br>\n\nBu 3 kategori birbirine kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmamal\u0131d\u0131r.\n<br><br>\n\nKantitatif stratejilerin de\u011ferlendirilmesinde i\u015flem maliyeti varsay\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131, parametrelerin istikrar\u0131n\u0131 ve do\u011frulanabilir ger\u00e7ek i\u015flem kay\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131n bulunup bulunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da incelemek gerekir.\n<br><br>\n\n<strong>\u0130yi bir backtest, ger\u00e7ek al\u0131m sat\u0131mda iyi sonu\u00e7lar elde edildi\u011finin kan\u0131t\u0131 de\u011fildir.<\/strong>\n<br><br>\n\n\n<h3><strong>5.4 Uygun Bir Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma \u00d6l\u00e7\u00fct\u00fc Se\u00e7in<\/strong><\/h3>\n\nD\u00f6nem ve y\u00f6ntem ayn\u0131 olsa bile iki stratejinin yat\u0131r\u0131m hedefleri farkl\u0131 olabilir.\n<br><br>\n\nHisse senedi ETF'leri, tahvil ETF'leri ve kantitatif stratejiler farkl\u0131 risk profillerine ve getiri kaynaklar\u0131na sahip olabilir.\n<br><br>\n\nBu nedenle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct\u00fc (benchmark), stratejinin yat\u0131r\u0131m evrenini, risk profilini ve de\u011ferlendirme amac\u0131n\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funca yans\u0131tmal\u0131d\u0131r.\n<br><br>\n\nABD'deki b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015firketleri takip eden bir ETF i\u00e7in S&amp;P 500 endeksi uygun bir kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct\u00fc olabilir.\n<br><br>\n\nAncak farkl\u0131 piyasalarda i\u015flem yapan veya farkl\u0131 kurallar kullanan bir kantitatif strateji i\u00e7in tek bir hisse senedi endeksi yeterli olmayabilir.\n<br><br>\n\nBu durumda ilgili piyasa endeksleri, nakit veya k\u0131sa vadeli faiz oranlar\u0131 ve di\u011fer uygun \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fctler risk, maliyet ve yat\u0131r\u0131m hedefleriyle birlikte ayr\u0131 ayr\u0131 incelenebilir.\n<br><br>\n\n<strong>Benchmark, kolayca a\u015f\u0131lacak bir hedef de\u011fil; al\u0131nan riskin yeterli getiri sa\u011flay\u0131p sa\u011flamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fctt\u00fcr.<\/strong>\n<br><br>\n\nBaz\u0131 durumlarda birden fazla benchmark gerekebilir. Calmar Oran\u0131 da stratejinin kapsaml\u0131 analizinin yerini tutmaz.\n<br><br>\n\nD\u00f6nem, hesaplama y\u00f6ntemi, performans\u0131n dayanaklar\u0131 ve kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct\u00fc ne kadar a\u00e7\u0131k tan\u0131mlan\u0131rsa Calmar Oran\u0131 o kadar yararl\u0131 hale gelir.\n<br><br>\n\n\n<h2><strong>6. Sonu\u00e7: Getirinin Arkas\u0131ndaki Riski G\u00f6r\u00fcn<\/strong><\/h2>\n\nY\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f getiri, bir yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015f performans\u0131n\u0131n yaln\u0131zca bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc anlat\u0131r.\n<br><br>\n\n\u0130ki strateji ayn\u0131 getiriyi elde edebilir; ancak maksimum d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri farkl\u0131 oldu\u011funda risk ayarl\u0131 performanslar\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015febilir.\n<br><br>\n\nBenzer \u015fekilde daha y\u00fcksek getiri sa\u011flayan bir yat\u0131r\u0131m, en b\u00fcy\u00fck tarihsel d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne k\u0131yasla mutlaka daha iyi bir orana sahip de\u011fildir.\n<br><br>\n\nCalmar Oran\u0131 ve t\u00fcm tarihsel d\u00f6nemin getiri\/maksimum d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f oran\u0131 daha do\u011fru sorular sormam\u0131za yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur:\n<br><br>\n\n<ul>\n<li>Yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f getirisi ne kadard\u0131?<\/li>\n<li>En b\u00fcy\u00fck tarihsel maksimum d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ne kadar derindi?<\/li>\n<li>Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lan d\u00f6nemler ve hesaplama y\u00f6ntemleri uyumlu mu?<\/li>\n<li>Se\u00e7ilen benchmark uygun mu?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<br>\n\nSPY, QQQ, BRK.B ve BND \u00f6rnekleri, y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f getiri ile maksimum d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkinin yat\u0131r\u0131m ara\u00e7lar\u0131na g\u00f6re \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015febilece\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir.\n<br><br>\n\n\u0130ster ETF, ister tekil hisse senedi, tahvil veya kantitatif strateji analiz edin; \u015feffaf ve kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131labilir performans verileri vazge\u00e7ilmezdir.\n<br><br>\n\n<strong>\u00d6nemli olan yaln\u0131zca hangi yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n daha \u00e7ok kazand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011fil, hangi getirinin hedeflerinize ve anlayabildi\u011finiz risk d\u00fczeyine uygun oldu\u011fudur.<\/strong>\n<br><br>\n\nCalmar Oran\u0131 nihai cevap de\u011fil, daha bilin\u00e7li yat\u0131r\u0131m de\u011ferlendirmeleri i\u00e7in bir ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 noktas\u0131d\u0131r.\n<br><br>\n\n\n<h3><strong>Kantitatif Stratejilerin Performans\u0131n\u0131 ve Risk Y\u00f6netimini \u0130nceleyin<\/strong><\/h3>\n\nUzun vadeli ETF yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 biliyor ve farkl\u0131 getiri kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 ara\u015ft\u0131rmak istiyorsan\u0131z kantitatif al\u0131m sat\u0131m stratejilerinin performanslar\u0131n\u0131, maksimum d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerini ve risk y\u00f6netimi kurallar\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 inceleyebilirsiniz.\n<br><br>\n\nMr.Forex strateji analizlerini de inceleyebilir ve bu makaledeki ilkeleri kullanarak veri d\u00f6nemlerini, risk ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 ve stratejilerin kendi hedeflerinize uygunlu\u011funu ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bi\u00e7imde de\u011ferlendirebilirsiniz.\n<br><br>\n\n<strong>\u00d6nce verilerin kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131labilir oldu\u011funu do\u011frulay\u0131n. Ard\u0131ndan stratejinin ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131za uygun olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirin.<\/strong>\n<br><br>\n\n<hr>\n<br>\n\n<strong>Risk uyar\u0131s\u0131:<\/strong> Bu makale yaln\u0131zca finansal e\u011fitim ve genel bilgilendirme amac\u0131yla haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ki\u015fiye \u00f6zel yat\u0131r\u0131m tavsiyesi veya k\u00e2r garantisi niteli\u011finde de\u011fildir. Strateji A, B, C ve D'ye ait rakamlar e\u011fitim amac\u0131yla olu\u015fturulmu\u015f varsay\u0131msal \u00f6rneklerdir; herhangi bir yat\u0131r\u0131m \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fcn ger\u00e7ek performans\u0131n\u0131 temsil etmez. Bahsedilen ETF ve hisse senetlerinin ge\u00e7mi\u015f performans\u0131 gelecekteki sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 garanti etmez. Kantitatif stratejilerin backtest sonu\u00e7lar\u0131, modellerin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 uyumu, veri yanl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, i\u015flem maliyetleri, slippage ve de\u011fi\u015fen piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131ndan etkilenebilir. Sim\u00fclasyon sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 ger\u00e7ek i\u015flem performans\u0131n\u0131n kan\u0131t\u0131 veya gelecekteki k\u00e2r\u0131n garantisi olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmemelidir. T\u00fcm yat\u0131r\u0131mlar risk i\u00e7erir ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar yat\u0131rd\u0131klar\u0131 sermayenin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 veya tamam\u0131n\u0131 kaybedebilir.\n<\/span><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Calmar Oran\u0131 nedir, nas\u0131l hesaplan\u0131r? SPY, QQQ, BRK.B ve BND'nin y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f getirilerini ve maksimum d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerini kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131n. Y\u00fcksek getiri her zaman iyi risk y\u00f6netimi demek de\u011fildir.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":74487,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"tags":[128],"class_list":["post-74473","page","type-page","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-no-google"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/74473","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=74473"}],"version-history":[{"count":25,"href":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/74473\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":74570,"href":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/74473\/revisions\/74570"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/74487"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=74473"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=74473"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}