{"id":53627,"date":"2025-05-08T13:53:10","date_gmt":"2025-05-08T05:53:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/test.swqi.tw\/?p=53627"},"modified":"2025-12-03T03:43:18","modified_gmt":"2025-12-02T19:43:18","slug":"forex-fundamental-analysis-beginners","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/vi\/forex-fundamental-analysis-beginners\/","title":{"rendered":"Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i nh\u1eadp m\u00f4n: Ng\u01b0\u1eddi m\u1edbi gi\u1ea3i m\u00e3 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u tin t\u1ee9c, th\u1ea5u hi\u1ec3u xu h\u01b0\u1edbng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n

Nh\u1eadp m\u00f4n ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i: Gi\u1ea3i m\u00e3 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 tin t\u1ee9c, th\u1ea5u hi\u1ec3u xu h\u01b0\u1edbng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\nN\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n mu\u1ed1n bi\u1ebft t\u1ea1i sao \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia l\u1ea1i t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 hay gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1, kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u01a1n thu\u1ea7n nh\u00ecn v\u00e0o bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 gi\u00e1 l\u00ean hay xu\u1ed1ng, th\u00ec b\u1ea1n c\u1ea7n hi\u1ec3u v\u1ec1 \u201cph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n\u201d<\/strong>.
\nKh\u00e1c v\u1edbi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt<\/strong> t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 gi\u00e1, ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n ch\u00fa tr\u1ecdng v\u00e0o c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia, bao g\u1ed3m t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh kinh t\u1ebf, ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7, c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i v\u00e0 c\u00e1c kh\u00eda c\u1ea1nh v\u0129 m\u00f4 kh\u00e1c.

\nPh\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb \u201cth\u1ef1c\u201d hay \u201cn\u1ed9i t\u1ea1i\u201d c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n so v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n kh\u00e1c, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i l\u00e0 cao hay th\u1ea5p.
\n\u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y nghe c\u00f3 v\u1ebb ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p h\u01a1n vi\u1ec7c xem bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3, nh\u01b0ng hi\u1ec3u c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n s\u1ebd cung c\u1ea5p cho b\u1ea1n c\u00e1i nh\u00ecn s\u00e2u s\u1eafc h\u01a1n v\u1ec1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.
\nB\u00e0i vi\u1ebft n\u00e0y s\u1ebd gi\u1edbi thi\u1ec7u \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n v\u1ec1 t\u01b0 t\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n, c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 ch\u00ednh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c quan t\u00e2m, v\u00e0 c\u00e1ch n\u00f3 gi\u00fap b\u1ea1n hi\u1ec3u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.

\n\n

1. T\u01b0 t\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n: S\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh kinh t\u1ebf quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n<\/strong> <\/h2>\nQuan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n r\u1ea5t tr\u1ef1c quan: gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh b\u1edfi s\u1ee9c kh\u1ecfe kinh t\u1ebf, s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng c\u1ea1nh tranh t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00e1c.

\nTh\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng, kinh t\u1ebf m\u1ea1nh = \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n m\u1ea1nh:<\/strong> N\u1ebfu m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia c\u00f3 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf t\u1ed1t, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh, l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t h\u1ea5p d\u1eabn, ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh, th\u00ec s\u1ebd d\u1ec5 thu h\u00fat \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i, t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 t\u0103ng nhu c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd, l\u00e0m \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n t\u0103ng gi\u00e1.
\nNg\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, kinh t\u1ebf y\u1ebfu = \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n y\u1ebfu:<\/strong> suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t cao, l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ea5p ho\u1eb7c b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n ch\u1ea3y ra, khi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1.

\nB\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 v\u00ed \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng ty: b\u1ea1n s\u1ebd nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u b\u00e1o c\u00e1o t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, \u0111\u1ed9i ng\u0169 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd, tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng ng\u00e0nh v\u00e0 c\u00e1c th\u00f4ng tin \u201cc\u01a1 b\u1ea3n\u201d<\/strong> \u0111\u1ec3 quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh li\u1ec7u c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 \u0111\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n hay kh\u00f4ng.
\nPh\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n c\u0169ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1, ch\u1ec9 kh\u00e1c l\u00e0 t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o \u201cc\u01a1 b\u1ea3n\u201d<\/strong> c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia.

\n\n

2. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n quan t\u00e2m \u0111\u1ebfn nh\u1eefng y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 n\u00e0o?<\/strong> <\/h2>\nC\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n s\u1ebd ch\u00fa \u00fd \u0111\u1ebfn nhi\u1ec1u th\u00f4ng tin v\u0129 m\u00f4 \u201cb\u1ee9c tranh l\u1edbn\u201d, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u00f3m g\u1ecdn th\u00e0nh c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m ch\u00ednh sau: 

\n
    \n
  • C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 kinh t\u1ebf quan tr\u1ecdng (Economic Indicators):<\/strong> \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 c\u00e1c s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea then ch\u1ed1t \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ee9c kh\u1ecfe kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia. Nh\u1eefng ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ebfn th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i th\u01b0\u1eddng bao g\u1ed3m: \n
      \n
    • L\u00e3i su\u1ea5t (Interest Rates):<\/strong> \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t! L\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao th\u01b0\u1eddng thu h\u00fat d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn cao h\u01a1n, t\u0103ng nhu c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u00f3, l\u00e0m \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n t\u0103ng gi\u00e1. Do \u0111\u00f3, quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng lu\u00f4n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u00fa \u00fd.<\/li>\n
    • D\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t (Inflation Data):<\/strong> V\u00ed d\u1ee5 nh\u01b0 Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 gi\u00e1 ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng (CPI). L\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t cao c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 khi\u1ebfn ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 ki\u1ec1m ch\u1ebf, nh\u01b0ng c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m s\u1ee9c mua c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n. Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u01b0\u1eddng quan t\u00e2m l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u00f3 \u0111\u00fang nh\u01b0 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng hay kh\u00f4ng.<\/li>\n
    • D\u1eef li\u1ec7u t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf (GDP Growth):<\/strong> Ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh t\u1ed5ng s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia. T\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng m\u1ea1nh th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i cho \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n.<\/li>\n
    • D\u1eef li\u1ec7u vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m (Employment Data):<\/strong> V\u00ed d\u1ee5 nh\u01b0 b\u00e1o c\u00e1o vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m phi n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p M\u1ef9 (NFP). T\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m t\u1ed1t th\u01b0\u1eddng cho th\u1ea5y kinh t\u1ebf kh\u1ecfe m\u1ea1nh, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n t\u0103ng gi\u00e1.<\/li>\n <\/ul>\n <\/li>\n
    • Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng (Central Banks):<\/strong> C\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia (v\u00ed d\u1ee5 nh\u01b0 Fed<\/strong> c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9, ECB<\/strong> c\u1ee7a ch\u00e2u \u00c2u, BOJ<\/strong> c\u1ee7a Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n, BOE<\/strong> c\u1ee7a Anh) qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd kinh t\u1ebf th\u00f4ng qua vi\u1ec7c thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp \u201cch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7\u201d<\/strong> (nh\u01b0 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, mua b\u00e1n t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n, v.v.). Quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0 ph\u00e1t ng\u00f4n c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd c\u00f3 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ebfn k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n.<\/li>\n
    • \u1ed4n \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb v\u00e0 c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n quan tr\u1ecdng (Political Stability & Events):<\/strong> K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 b\u1ea7u c\u1eed, s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7, c\u00e1c thay \u0111\u1ed5i ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch l\u1edbn (nh\u01b0 thu\u1ebf, ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i), c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng quan h\u1ec7 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf, xung \u0111\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb (nh\u01b0 chi\u1ebfn tranh) \u0111\u1ec1u \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn ni\u1ec1m tin nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0 d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n.<\/li>\n
    • C\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 kh\u00e1c:<\/strong> Bao g\u1ed3m thi\u00ean tai, bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1ea1nh v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1 h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a (\u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n nh\u01b0 AUD, CAD li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean), thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n, v.v., c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
      \n\n

      3. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u1ee9ng d\u1ee5ng nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o trong giao d\u1ecbch?<\/strong> <\/h2>\nHi\u1ec3u c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u00fap giao d\u1ecbch c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n theo c\u00e1c c\u00e1ch sau: 

      \n