{"id":57730,"date":"2025-09-07T23:26:01","date_gmt":"2025-09-07T15:26:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/test.swqi.tw\/?p=57730"},"modified":"2025-12-03T03:42:32","modified_gmt":"2025-12-02T19:42:32","slug":"survivorship-bias-investment-trap","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mister.forex\/vi\/survivorship-bias-investment-trap\/","title":{"rendered":"Thi\u00ean ki\u1ebfn k\u1ebb s\u1ed1ng s\u00f3t: M\u1ed9t nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf v\u00e0 c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Nh\u1eefng r\u1ee7i ro ti\u1ec1m \u1ea9n \u0111\u1eb1ng sau m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3n l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0<\/strong> <\/h2>\nH\u00f4m nay, t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c tr\u00f2 chuy\u1ec7n v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi b\u1ea1n m\u00e0 t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 quen bi\u1ebft t\u1eeb l\u00e2u. Anh \u1ea5y r\u1ea5t vui m\u1eebng chia s\u1ebb kinh nghi\u1ec7m \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n. Anh \u1ea5y \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3n ti\u1ec1n ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu duy nh\u1ea5t m\u00e0 anh \u1ea5y r\u1ea5t l\u1ea1c quan. Tuy nhi\u00ean, t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00f4ng nh\u01b0 mong \u0111\u1ee3i, v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m 50%, khi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb s\u1ed5 s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 b\u1ecb gi\u1ea3m \u0111i m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda.\n

\nTrong khi h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e3 ho\u1ea3ng lo\u1ea1n v\u00e0 b\u00e1n ra, anh \u1ea5y \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ecdn ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c n\u1eafm gi\u1eef v\u00e0 li\u00ean t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh \u1edf m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p. May m\u1eafn thay, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng \u0111\u00e3 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i, gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a anh \u1ea5y \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i v\u00e0 th\u1eadm ch\u00ed v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua gi\u00e1 mua ban \u0111\u1ea7u, bi\u1ebfn kho\u1ea3n l\u1ed7 c\u1ee7a anh \u1ea5y th\u00e0nh l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn.\n

\nAnh \u1ea5y k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng anh \u1ea5y tin r\u1eb1ng th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu l\u00e0 do ni\u1ec1m tin \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u1eefng ch\u1eafc c\u1ee7a b\u1ea3n th\u00e2n, v\u00e0 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 may m\u1eafn l\u00e0 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i nh\u1ecf.\n

\nT\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 vui m\u1eebng cho l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a anh \u1ea5y, nh\u01b0ng v\u1edbi t\u01b0 c\u00e1ch l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t \"ng\u01b0\u1eddi h\u00e0nh ngh\u1ec1 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh\", t\u00f4i c\u0169ng v\u00f4 c\u00f9ng lo l\u1eafng v\u1ec1 quy tr\u00ecnh m\u00e0 anh \u1ea5y \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n. T\u1eeb quan \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 r\u1ee7i ro chuy\u00ean nghi\u1ec7p, ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a anh \u1ea5y \u0111\u00e3 vi ph\u1ea1m nhi\u1ec1u nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc quan tr\u1ecdng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn nh\u1eefng t\u1ed5n th\u1ea5t th\u1ea3m kh\u1ed1c.\n

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Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ba r\u1ee7i ro l\u1edbn \u0111\u1eb1ng sau \"c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng\" n\u00e0y<\/strong> <\/h2>\nB\u1ec1 ngo\u00e0i, \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c mua v\u00e0o khi ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00e1c s\u1ee3 h\u00e3i, nh\u01b0ng khi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u1eeb g\u00f3c \u0111\u1ed9 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd r\u1ee7i ro, quy tr\u00ecnh n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ea7y r\u1eaby nh\u1eefng nguy hi\u1ec3m ti\u1ec1m t\u00e0ng nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng.\n

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  1. R\u1ee7i ro t\u1eadp trung c\u1ef1c \u0111oan:<\/strong> \u0110\u1ea7u t\u01b0 g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 v\u1ed1n v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n duy nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t h\u00e0nh vi c\u00f3 r\u1ee7i ro cao. B\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u1ef1 tin nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o v\u00e0o t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n \u0111\u00f3, kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7 nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4, \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ng\u00e0nh, ho\u1eb7c c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n n\u1ed9i b\u1ed9 c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ty. C\u00f3 r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n gi\u1ea3m v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng bao gi\u1edd ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i. M\u1ed9t khi \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y x\u1ea3y ra, nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 s\u1ebd m\u1ea5t to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 v\u1ed1n c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh.<\/li>\n
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  2. R\u1ee7i ro c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 trong m\u1ed9t xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u1ea3m:<\/strong> Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \"mua th\u00eam khi gi\u00e1 gi\u1ea3m\" \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ea1 gi\u00e1 v\u1ed1n trung b\u00ecnh v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u1eb1ng \"gi\u00e1 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng s\u1ebd ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i\". \u0110\u1ec3 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u00e0y th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng, hai \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng: nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ph\u1ea3i c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ee7 v\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ec3 ch\u1ed1ng ch\u1ecdi v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m li\u00ean t\u1ee5c, v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 ph\u1ea3i ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng. N\u1ebfu m\u1ed9t trong hai \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng, k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 th\u1ea3m h\u1ecda.<\/li>\n
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  3. S\u1ef1 quy k\u1ebft nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n sai l\u1ea7m:<\/strong> \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec3m nguy hi\u1ec3m nh\u1ea5t. B\u1edfi v\u00ec h\u00e0nh vi c\u00f3 r\u1ee7i ro cao n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 mang l\u1ea1i m\u1ed9t k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 t\u00edch c\u1ef1c, b\u1ea1n t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 quy k\u1ebft s\u1ef1 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng cho \"ni\u1ec1m tin v\u1eefng ch\u1eafc\" v\u00e0 \"ph\u00e1n \u0111o\u00e1n ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c\" c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh, trong khi b\u1ecf qua y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 may m\u1eafn \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 c\u00f3 li\u00ean quan. Sai l\u1ec7ch nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c n\u00e0y c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t t\u00ean g\u1ecdi c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 trong t\u00e2m l\u00fd h\u1ecdc, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c bi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ebfn l\u00e0 \"Thi\u00ean ki\u1ebfn k\u1ebb s\u1ed1ng s\u00f3t\".<\/strong> <\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
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    Hi\u1ec3u v\u1ec1 \"Thi\u00ean ki\u1ebfn k\u1ebb s\u1ed1ng s\u00f3t\": M\u1ed9t tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p l\u1ecbch s\u1eed<\/strong> <\/h2>\nTrong Chi\u1ebfn tranh th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi th\u1ee9 hai, l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0110\u1ed3ng minh mu\u1ed1n c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ed9 b\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a m\u00e1y bay n\u00e9m bom \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng b\u1ecb b\u1eafn h\u1ea1. \u0110\u1ec3 l\u00e0m \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y, h\u1ecd \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c m\u00e1y bay \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf v\u1ec1 c\u0103n c\u1ee9 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng v\u00e0 ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n ra r\u1eb1ng ph\u1ea7n c\u00e1nh v\u00e0 \u0111u\u00f4i c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u l\u1ed7 \u0111\u1ea1n nh\u1ea5t, trong khi khu v\u1ef1c bu\u1ed3ng l\u00e1i v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u01a1 c\u00f3 r\u1ea5t \u00edt.\n

    \nK\u1ebft lu\u1eadn ban \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i l\u00e0: h\u1ecd n\u00ean th\u00eam nhi\u1ec1u gi\u00e1p h\u01a1n v\u00e0o c\u00e1c khu v\u1ef1c c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u l\u1ed7 \u0111\u1ea1n nh\u1ea5t, l\u00e0 c\u00e1nh v\u00e0 \u0111u\u00f4i.\n

    \nTuy nhi\u00ean, m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea t\u00ean l\u00e0 Abraham Wald \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t m\u1ed9t quan \u0111i\u1ec3m ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i. \u00d4ng cho r\u1eb1ng nh\u1eefng khu v\u1ef1c th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 c\u1ea7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gia c\u1ed1 l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng n\u01a1i g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 l\u1ed7 \u0111\u1ea1n.<\/strong> \n

    \nC\u00e1i nh\u00ecn s\u00e2u s\u1eafc logic c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng nh\u01b0 sau: to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 m\u1eabu m\u00e1y bay trong th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng \"k\u1ebb s\u1ed1ng s\u00f3t\" \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf v\u1ec1 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng. Vi\u1ec7c c\u00e1c m\u00e1y bay v\u1eabn c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 bay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i ngay c\u1ea3 khi c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u l\u1ed7 \u0111\u1ea1n \u1edf c\u00e1nh v\u00e0 \u0111u\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ee9ng minh r\u1eb1ng thi\u1ec7t h\u1ea1i \u1edf nh\u1eefng b\u1ed9 ph\u1eadn n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng g\u00e2y t\u1eed vong. Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, nh\u1eefng chi\u1ebfc m\u00e1y bay b\u1ecb b\u1eafn tr\u00fang \u1edf c\u00e1c khu v\u1ef1c quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u01b0 bu\u1ed3ng l\u00e1i v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u01a1 \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb r\u01a1i v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng bao gi\u1edd c\u00f3 c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i quay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i c\u0103n c\u1ee9 \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u01b0a v\u00e0o th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea.\n

    \nTr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, ch\u00fang ta ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu nghe nh\u1eefng c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n \"th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng may m\u1eafn\" nh\u01b0 c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n t\u00f4i. Kinh nghi\u1ec7m c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p nh\u01b0ng cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng ph\u1ea3i ch\u1ecbu nh\u1eefng t\u1ed5n th\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 th\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1ecb b\u1ecf qua. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 nguy hi\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a \"Thi\u00ean ki\u1ebfn k\u1ebb s\u1ed1ng s\u00f3t\": n\u00f3 khi\u1ebfn ch\u00fang ta nh\u1ea7m l\u1eabn khi coi \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t v\u00e0i ng\u01b0\u1eddi s\u1ed1ng s\u00f3t l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn.\n

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    \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a g\u00ec \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n?<\/strong> <\/h2>\nH\u00e0nh vi \"mua th\u00eam khi gi\u00e1 gi\u1ea3m\" n\u00e0y v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t logic r\u1ea5t gi\u1ed1ng v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd ti\u1ec1n c\u00f3 r\u1ee7i ro cao n\u1ed5i ti\u1ebfng trong giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 - chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c Martingale<\/strong>.\n

    \nChi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c Martingale \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 khi, sau m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3n l\u1ed7 trong m\u1ed9t giao d\u1ecbch, ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta v\u00e0o l\u1ea1i v\u1edbi s\u1ed1 v\u1ed1n g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i, trong n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c b\u00f9 \u0111\u1eafp t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n l\u1ed7 tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 ch\u1ec9 b\u1eb1ng m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n th\u1eafng.\n

    \nCho d\u00f9 \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu, ti\u1ec1n \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1eed, hay ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i, chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u00e0y ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t r\u1ee7i ro c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n: n\u1ebfu m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c c\u1ef1c \u0111oan x\u1ea3y ra (gi\u00e1 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c gi\u1ea3m v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng bao gi\u1edd ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i, ho\u1eb7c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u1ea3i qua m\u1ed9t xu h\u01b0\u1edbng m\u1ed9t chi\u1ec1u c\u1ef1c \u0111oan), t\u00e0i kho\u1ea3n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u1ecb x\u00f3a s\u1ed5. Th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n t\u00f4i ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 v\u00ec anh \u1ea5y \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4ng g\u1eb7p ph\u1ea3i m\u1ed9t t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng c\u1ef1c \u0111oan nh\u01b0 v\u1eady l\u1ea7n n\u00e0y.\n

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    \u0110\u1ecbnh ngh\u0129a l\u1ea1i \"\u0110\u1ea7u t\u01b0 th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng\" v\u00e0 \"Tinh th\u1ea7n m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd\"<\/strong> <\/h2>\nB\u1ea1n t\u00f4i ngh\u0129 r\u1eb1ng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh l\u00e0 \"th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng\". \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 hi\u1ec3u l\u1ea7m ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn v\u1ec1 kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m n\u00e0y.\n

    \n